Framework For Thinking Through Personal Finance

(Warning: The following post is very stream-of-consciousness and written on very little sleep.)

While doodling today (I doodle a lot) I started thinking about money and how it such an overwhelming issue at times. I read so much advice from so many different directions, my head starts to spin. I ended up drawing this:

altext

Basically, the idea is that if you want more money, you should focus in on one of these three areas:

Spend Less
Either through buying less goods and services, or by finding a lower price for the same goods and services, one can spend less money each month. Much of this is psychological, as most of what we buy are “wants” and not “needs”. Long-time habits and deeply ingrained notions may need to be broken. Priorities need to be consciously decided. However, there comes a point where it is simply not possible to spend any less.

Invest Better
With the money that is saved, one would want to make it grow as much as possible. Here, I am focusing more on passive investments like stocks, mutual funds, bonds, or gold. There are many competing theories as to whether skill is a factor in picking stocks. Personally, I believe that the markets are mainly efficient, and that “beating the market” is exceedingly unlikely. All that can be done is to maximize your risk/reward ratio. Therefore, there is also a maximum value on how “well” we can invest.

Earn More
This is done via work, either through being an employee, or starting your own business and becoming the employer. Ways to advance in your career include more education, better interpersonal skills, or otherwise achieving positive results and getting promoted. Other more individual ventures include real estate investing, building a business with employees, or creative works that produce “passive income”. These come with additional risk of losing money, but also offer added upside.

Priorities and Diminishing Returns
I feel that the first two, Spending Less, and Investing Better, should be the first to be addressed. If very little attention has been paid to these two areas, a lot of progress can be made. Of course, it can probably be a lifelong process to make sure these things continue to be taken care of. Lots of energy can be spent trying to optimize both (!). However, at some point, I think there will be diminishing returns. When you start considering about whether you should flush the toilet every time you use it in order to save water, perhaps it’s time to focus on other things. 😀 Similarly, there is only so much I can make from maximizing bank interest and picking a optimum asset allocation. Of course, if you reach a happy place already, you don’t even need to Earn More.

In a way, I think Spending Less and Investing Better are appropriately located at the base of the triangle. After building a good foundation, you can start taking some risks in the Earning More area. I think for most people this is the hardest part. It can be very hard to increase one’s salary if they feel they are stuck in their current career. Maybe they are comfortable already. Taking classes, switching jobs, it can be very stressful. On the other hand, it is also the one with limitless boundaries.

I know I already discuss these things on a daily basis, but I think it can also be good to methodically examine one’s progress in each of these areas every so often.

Morningstar’s Stewardship Rating: Better Than Those Annoying Stars!

A couple weeks ago I wrote about characteristics of good actively managed mutual funds, which talked about finding managers who have most aligned their interests with their investors.

I just discovered that there is also something similar called the Morningstar Stewardship Rating, which grades funds on “intangibles like corporate culture, board quality, manager incentives, fees and regulatory history.” In fact, many of the themes are almost identical. Here are more details of each component, taken from press releases and the official methodology:

Corporate Culture. Is the fund company focused on investing or gathering assets? Does the fund company foster a thoughtful, repeatable investment process?

Board Quality. Does the board consistently act in shareholders? best interest? Do the independent directors have meaningful investments in the fund? Is the board led by an independent chairman, and are 75% of the directors independent?

Fees. Morningstar now assesses funds solely on their current expense ratios and how those fees compare to their peers, and no longer considers the trend in fees.

Manager Incentives. Does the manager have a significant investment in the fund(s) he or she oversees? Do the compensation plans reward long-term performance or simply emphasize asset growth?

Regulatory Issues. Funds do not receive points toward their overall Stewardship Grade for simply following the law, and firms with poor regulatory histories will lose points.

Unfortunately, to actually get the exact grades of any specific fund, you have to subscribe to the Morningstar site at over $100 a year. Blah. But here is one useful tidbit:

Management companies with one or more funds at the top of the class include, in alphabetical order, Clipper, Columbia Acorn, Davis, Diamond Hill, Dodge & Cox, FPA Paramount, Longleaf Partners, Oakmark, Pennsylvania Mutual, Royce, Selected American, T. Rowe Price and the Vanguard Group.

I would much rather use this Stewardship rating to help assess active funds than the more popular (and separate) Morningstar “Star” Ratings, as that system continues to overweight recent past performance and offers questionable predictive abilities.

How Much Better Is Your 401k Than A Regular Taxable Brokerage Account?

Everybody loves 401k plans for their tax advantages. But exactly how good are they, really? What if your 401k only offers limited, more expensive options than you can find from a regular brokerage account? I wanted to explore this using some estimated numbers, just to see how it works out. I know my assumptions won’t fit everyone, but people can adjust them to be closer to their own situation.

Assumptions

  1. Start with a $10,000 pre-tax contribution for each
  2. Both plans have the same imaginary investments for 30 years
  3. Annual return on those investments is 8%, broken down into 6% from capital gains, and 2% in qualified dividends. This is to approximate the amount of dividends currently being paid on stocks in general.
  4. 28% ordinary tax bracket both now and upon withdrawal in retirement
  5. 15% tax bracket for long-term capital gains and qualified dividends
  6. Any company matching is ignored, as everyone should contribute up to the match. 🙂

401k Calculations
The calculations for the final value of the 401(k) are relatively simple. You start with $10,000, it grows at 8% annually without any tax consequences for 30 years, and then upon withdrawal it is taxed at ordinary income tax rates. With our assumptions, the math would look like this:
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Fidelity Self-Employed 401k Account Review

I’ve mentioned several times I have a Self-Employed 401k account. It’s a somewhat unique thing, so here’s a little bit more about it.

What’s a Self-Employed 401(k) and who’s eligible?
A Self-Employed 401(k) is a tax-advantaged 401(k) retirement account that is available to self-employed individuals or business owners with no employees other than a spouse, including sole proprietors, partnerships, corporations, and S-corporations. It is also referred to as an Individual 401(k) or a Solo 401(k). You can even get them in Traditional or Roth versions.

For more details, see these other posts:

I chose a Solo 401k over other options like SEP-IRA due to the increased contribution limits for those with relatively low self-employed incomes. I ended up picking Fidelity Investments as my plan administrator, and here are my experiences after using it for the last year:

Application Process
It’s been a while, so I don’t have a rundown of dates or anything, but I remember the application being a bit long, but very straightforward. You can either print the forms out online, or have them mail you a nicely bound copy. I mailed it in, they set it up, and I had my own Solo 401k. No hassles.

Account Fees
There were no setup fees, no maintenance fees, no minimum balance requirements, no annual fees. I only thing I’ve ever paid is for the expense ratios in the mutual funds I bought. As you’ll see below, that’s barely added up to $20 so far!

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Choosing Between Limited 401(k) Investment Options

Many of us are faced with the dilemma of putting money into a 401k due to the tax-advantages, but only being presented with limited investment options. Personally, up until now to have 401k’s all run by the giant Fidelity, but this time around we were faced with smaller company. I’ve never heard of them before, so I’ll just call them “In House” funds.

Here’s how I systematically picked out the best funds from my menu of choices. It follows my investment belief that the best long-term performance can be gained with primarily passive, low-cost, and asset-allocated portfolios.

As a preface, I should say that I treat all my accounts as one – 401ks, 403bs, Traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, SEP-IRAs, and any taxable accounts meant for retirement. Even between my wife and I, all of it is taken together. I then try to make them follow the asset allocation I chose.

I’m not a financial professional, so don’t take this as financial advice, ya hear? It’s just what I did:

1) Make a list of each mutual fund, including the name, the asset class it represents, any front-end or back-end loads, and the net annual expense ratio. You may need to read the prospectus for each fund, or at least grab the ticker symbol and use the quote from Morningstar.com to determine these values. Here’s my list, luckily all of them were no-load funds:

 
Available 401(k) Options
Fund Name Asset Class Expense Ratio
Guaranteed Pooled Fund
(Fixed Interest Rate of 4.65%)
Stable Value 0.60%
PIMCO Total Return Admin (PTRAX) Intermediate-Term Bond 0.68%
Dodge & Cox Stock (DODGX) US Large Cap Value 0.52%
In-House S&P 500 Index Fund S&P 500 / Large Cap Blend 0.30%
In-House Equity Growth Fund US Large Cap Growth 0.90%
Lazard Mid Cap Open (LZMOX) Mid Cap Blend 1.18%
Columbia Small Cap Value II
(NSVAX)
Small Cap Value 0.97%
Baron Small Cap (BSCFX) Small Cap Growth 1.33%
In-House International Equity Fund International Stock 1.15%
5 Different Asset
Allocation Funds
Varying Fixed Asset Allocations, from 90% Bonds/10% Stocks to 10% Bonds/90% Stocks 0.79-0.99%

2) Throw out any asset classes that aren’t included in your chosen asset allocation. For example, I am not interested in any stable value/money market funds, or any Small Cap Growth funds for my retirement portfolio right now.

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Zecco Trading Changes Free Stocks Trades Offer

Zecco Trading has just changed their pricing for new accounts from 40 free trades/month to 10 trades/month, and there is a new requirement that you must have $2,500 in account equity (cash + value of stocks). If you have less than $2,500, then trades cost $4.50. However, existing customers and anyone who applied before 10/1 will keep the old pricing until the beginning of 2008. After that, everyone will be at 10 free trades/month.

Instead of paying for free trades you may not use, we’re investing that money in the tools and functionality that you will. Over the coming months you can expect:

* Significant investments in the number of service representatives and training.
* Addition of 3 and 4 legged options strategies so you can trade butterflies, condors, and more.
* Release of a sophisticated options analytics platform.
* Access to ZeccoShare, the ground-breaking investor social network at zecco.com.

Zecco is still the cheapest place for my “fun money” account and 10 trades is enough for me, although I’ll have to add some more money into my account in a couple of months to reach $2,500. If you already have an account, log into your trading account for more info; there is also a new offer FAQ. If you are researching Zecco, be sure to check out my Zecco Review (two parts) for some tips to maximize your account. Thanks to Wes for the tip.

Flip Side: Finding The Best Active Mutual Fund Managers

Yesterday, I posted about why I chose against investing in most actively-managed funds. I actually do hold one actively-managed fund right now, the Bridgeway Ultra-Small Company Market Fund (BRSIX). Why did I choose this fund? It turns out that many of the warnings against buying an actively-managed fund can be flipped to find the best mutual fund managers. Here are several things to look for, as well as some of the companies that many of these characteristics.

Do They Have A Clear, Consistent Investment Strategy?
In order to beat the market, by definition they have to have substantially different holdings from the market and stick to their guns. Also, is it clear enough that you really believe in their strategy? If not, you might bail out yourself during a rough patch and miss out on the fund’s long term returns.

Do They Charge Reasonable Fees
To start, one would hope to see no front-end or back-end loads. If they are “to discourage excess trading”, then any fees should be directed back into the fund shares, not into the manager’s pockets. Otherwise, look for below-average fees, and for those fees to decrease as the amount of money under management increases. For example, the Vanguard Windsor II fund is one of the largest mutual funds available with $52 billion in assets, and has an expense ratio of only 0.33%. That’s more than many sub-par Large-Cap index funds.

Do They Limit Asset Bloat?
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Alan Greenspan Interview On The Daily Show

Alan Greenspan was a guest on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart recently, mainly to promote his new book The Age of Turbulence but conveniently after the recent rate cut. It was amusing seeing Greenspan in the hot seat. Via the Bogleheads.

Update: Having some problems with the embedded video, so here is the direct link to the clip.

Talking Myself Out Of Buying Actively Managed Mutual Funds

As anyone can see, I like to invest my investment portfolio in passively-managed mutual funds. There are numerous reasons for this. For one, the average actively-managed fund underperforms the average passive fund. In addition, even if a fund does well up to a certain point in time, it does not necessarily to do well later. In other words, you can’t pick out the superstars ahead of time by looking at performance.

But still, from time to time, I may take a second look at certain managed funds. One example is the sometimes-persuasive writings behind the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund (HSGFX). Or perhaps something not a mutual fund but similar like Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB). But I never buy them! Here’s why:

Higher Fees
The most obvious hurdle remains one of the largest. Actively managed funds have higher fees. The more the mutual fund makes, the less you make. They have so many ways of making money – fees when buying (front-end loads), fees while selling (back-end loads), fees while holding (management fees)… they even make you pay for their advertising costs (12b-1 marketing fees). Can the fund keep covering this and more?

What’s Their Secret?
In the beginning, most funds start off with their own unique plan to take advantage of some specific market inefficiency. If the fund manages to maintain a streak of good performance, word will soon spread. Others will start to scrutinize the manager and their trades in order to see what their methodology is. If they figure it out, whatever that market inefficiency was will soon disappear.

Asset Bloat
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Dow Jones Industrial Average: Accurate Index To Follow?

Whenever you hear a stock market update on TV or even online, it’s usually related to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)… “The Dow went up 100 points today.” “We are pushing back towards Dow 14,000!” I never really thought about this until reading in my current nightstand-book All About Index Funds that the Dow, started in 1896, has quite a number of flaws as compared to other newer indexes. These flaws are well described in this academic paper The Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Impact of Fixing Its Flaws. Here’s a quick summary:

#1 – The Dow only includes 30 somewhat-arbitrary stocks
In 1896, the DJIA had 12 stocks. In 1916, it grew to 20. In 1928, it increased again to 30. That’s it. It’s still just 30 stocks almost 80 years later. Not only that, but it’s not even clearly defined as the largest 30 companies or something like that. It’s simply 30 companies chosen by a committee to best represent the market out of the ~5,800 readily-priced publicly traded companies out there. Certain major sectors like transportation and utilities aren’t even covered.

#2 – The Dow is a price-weighted index
The DJIA is not weighted according to the relative value of the companies like the S&P 500 is. Instead, it’s weighted by price. So if GE’s share price of $41 goes up by $1 (market value change of ~$10 billion) , it can be negated by a $1 decrease in 3M share price of $92 (a market value change of ~$700 million). This skews the average towards the activity of higher-priced stocks.

#3 – The Dow doesn’t include dividends
This flaw is common to all of the other major stock indexes ? S&P 500, Nasdaq, Wilshire 5000. But given the relatively large amount of dividends that the companies in the Dow has historically paid out, this is important. The paper found that a total return index of the Dow companies including reinvested dividends would make the value of the index to be over 250,000 points today. Other indexes, like the Nasdaq, pay out a very small percentage in dividends in comparison.

Most surprisingly, the paper also concludes that #1 and #2 haven’t actually made that that much difference when comparing long-term returns with the other major indexes. Add in all that tradition, and I guess we’ll be seeing the Dow stick around for a long time to come.

September 2007 Investment Portfolio Snapshot

9/07 Portfolio Breakdown
 
Retirement Portfolio
Fund $ %
FSTMX – Fidelity Total Stock Market Index Fund $23,971 28%
VIVAX – Vanguard [Large-Cap] Value Index $14,273 16%
VISVX – V. Small-Cap Value Index $13,230 15%
VGSIX – V. REIT Index $8,100 9%
VTRIX – V. International Value $8,392 10%
VEIEX – V. Emerging Markets Stock Index $9,408 11%
VFICX – V. Int-Term Investment-Grade Bond $7,821 9%
BRSIX – Bridgeway Ultra-Small Market $2,015 2%
Cash none
Total $87,210
 
Fund Transactions Since Last Update
Bought $10,000 of FSTMX on 9/17/07 (240.327 shares)

Summary and Performance
This is my first update in almost 3 months (June update), as between the move and new jobs, there hasn’t been much activity to report. I finally managed to deposit some money and bought $10,000 more of a Total US Stock Market fund yesterday in a lump sum, despite some hesitation. It will be interesting to see what happens in the financial market today and the next few months.

I did manage to calculate my portfolio’s personal rate of return, which were 3.2% year-to-date, and 4.5% annualized for 2007. Positive returns came from the Emerging Markets and International stocks, while my REITs and US Small-Cap Value funds haven’t been doing so hot.

Why do I continue to neglecting my asset allocation? The reasons remain the same. The first part is that many of my intended moves might be considered performance-chasing, such as a desire for a larger international allocation and slightly more bonds. Sometimes it’s hard to tell if the change is actually warranted or if you’ve just been listening to too much CNBC or mainstream personal finance media. The second part is that I don’t want to be one that changes asset allocations every other week, so if I do change things I want to it with lots of research and justifications… and I’ve been a bit disinterested in reading about asset allocation recently.

Hedging Against The Dollar: Opening A Foreign Currency Bank Account vs. Buying A Currency ETF

Lot’s of people have been asking me how to open up a bank account denominated in a foreign currency. The main reason appears to be a desire to hedge against future declines of the dollar. For example, right now the US dollar is trading at all-time lows versus the Euro, and at 30-year lows versus the Canadian dollar.

I must admit that I have no clue how to do this if one is not a citizen or permanent resident of another country. If you know how, please do enlighten us in the comments.

Now, I’m no currency expert, but doesn’t this sort of behavior seem like performance chasing? It’s the new “sure thing”. I figure if you own a good chunk of international stocks, you are already enjoying some foreign currency exposure. In addition, a weak dollar makes our exports cheaper across the border, which increases sales for domestic goods. As I expect to keep earning and spending US dollars for the foreseeable future, I don’t see any need for any additional hedging. If anything, I might hold more international stocks, but I’m still open to contrary opinions.

Let’s say you do have a desire or need for some currency hedging. Instead of opening up a bank account in Euros, here are two alternatives:

Foreign Currency CDs at EverBank
EverBanks offers what it calls WorldCurrency Certificates of Deposit, which invest in a variety of foreign currencies. For example, with the Euro CD your $10,000 will be converted to Euros, earn an interest rate between 2.50-3.0% APR depending on term length, and then be converted back to US dollars upon maturity. The British pound CD is currently earning between 4.25 and 4.50% APR. So you’ll have the chance to make (or lose) money from differences in exchange rates in addition to earning interest. Here are more pros and cons:

– Guaranteed interest rate
– $10,000 minimum purchase
– Available in 3, 6, 9, and 12-month terms. No account fees
– FDIC-Insured against bank failure, but not currency losses
– EverBank likely makes money off the yields in addition to the conversions: ?The currency conversion rate will be within 1% of the wholesale spot price EverBank pays for the currency.?

Foreign Currency ETFs from Rydex
Rydex has a group of foreign currency ETFs that come close to pure plays on that currency. For example, Euro:USD exchange rate is approximately 1.39:1, so the share price of the CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) is $139. If the exchange rate goes to 1.50:1, then the share price would be about $150. Along the same lines, the British Pound Sterling ETF (FXB) has a share price of $201.

In addition, the ETF do effectively earn interest like bank accounts, as they give off monthly dividends. The Euro ETF is currently yielding 3.39%, and the British pound ETF is yielding 5.46%. This seems pretty good, considering Capital One 360 UK is yielding 5.25%. More pros and cons:

– Can buy as little as one share, from existing broker
– You are subject to possible stock commissions, and bid/ask spread
– Possible premium/discount to NAV
– Expense ratio is about 0.40%
– Trade in and out at anytime during market hours

Comparing the EverBank CDs and the CurrencyShares ETFs, it would seem that the ETF would win out if you had a broker that offered free trades like Zecco or WellsTrade.

Finally, you may be able to purchase or exchange into foreign currencies directly via a FOREX-specific broker or a standard stock brokerage that offers such capabilities. I’m not sure how much interest these sites pay though – I wonder if it is is standardized or if it varies like money market fund rates here.