Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) has released its 2017 Letter to Shareholders. Instead of reading various media coverage about one aspect, I recommend reading the entire thing straight from the source. It’s only 17 pages long and (as always) written in a straightforward and approachable fashion. Even if you aren’t interested in BRK stock at all, reading the letter can be educational for individual investors of any experience level. Here are my personal notes with quoted exceprts.

Never use borrowed money to invest (leverage).

Our aversion to leverage has dampened our returns over the years. But Charlie and I sleep well. Both of us believe it is insane to risk what you have and need in order to obtain what you don’t need. We held this view 50 years ago when we each ran an investment partnership, funded by a few friends and relatives who trusted us. We also hold it today after a million or so “partners” have joined us at Berkshire.

There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period. Even if your borrowings are small and your positions aren’t immediately threatened by the plunging market, your mind may well become rattled by scary headlines and breathless commentary. And an unsettled mind will not make good decisions.

Lack of acquisitions. Berkshire hates paying too much for a company. They are also quite patient. Right now, there are many other competing buyers willing to pay high prices, so that is why their cash hoard keeps growing.

The less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own.

Cash (Treasury Bills) is king.

During the 2008-2009 crisis, we liked having Treasury Bills – loads of Treasury Bills – that protected us from having to rely on funding sources such as bank lines or commercial paper. We have intentionally constructed Berkshire in a manner that will allow it to comfortably withstand economic discontinuities, including such extremes as extended market closures.

At yearend Berkshire held $116.0 billion in cash and U.S. Treasury Bills (whose average maturity was 88 days), up from $86.4 billion at yearend 2016. This extraordinary liquidity earns only a pittance and is far beyond the level Charlie and I wish Berkshire to have. Our smiles will broaden when we have redeployed Berkshire’s excess funds into more productive assets.

Be patient.

The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow.

Wells Fargo and Bank of America stock. If you’re looking for individual stock ideas, many people copycat the holdings of Berkshire Hathaway.

Charlie and I view the marketable common stocks that Berkshire owns as interests in businesses, not as ticker symbols to be bought or sold based on their “chart” patterns, the “target” prices of analysts or the opinions of media pundits.

I would also consider the overlap between the holdings of Berkshire Hathaway and Daily Journal Corporation (Chairman Charles Munger). Both have significant stakes in Wells Fargo and Bank of America in an approximate 3:2 ratio. (Both also own a much smaller amount of US Bancorp.) Keep in mind these are bought for the long run:

Stocks surge and swoon, seemingly untethered to any year-to-year buildup in their underlying value. Over time, however, Ben Graham’s oft-quoted maxim proves true: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, however, it becomes a weighing machine.”

Hedge fund bet. As expected, the S&P 500 index fund won against a group of actively-managed hedge funds, but there were some interesting details in the final results. Something to discuss further in a separate post.

Risk vs. time horizon.

Investing is an activity in which consumption today is foregone in an attempt to allow greater consumption at a later date. “Risk” is the possibility that this objective won’t be attained.

I want to quickly acknowledge that in any upcoming day, week or even year, stocks will be riskier – far riskier – than short-term U.S. bonds. As an investor’s investment horizon lengthens, however, a diversified portfolio of U.S. equities becomes progressively less risky than bonds, assuming that the stocks are purchased at a sensible multiple of earnings relative to then-prevailing interest rates.

Past shareholder letters.

• 1977-2017 are free on the Berkshire Hathaway website (PDF). 1965-2016 are $2.99 at Amazon (Kindle). Three bucks seems pretty reasonable for a permanent copy with the ability to make searchable highlights using Kindle software.
• 2016 Annual Letter touched on the rarity of skilled-stock pickers and some insight on his own stock-picking practices.
• 2015 Annual Letter discussed his optimism in America and his “Big 4” stock holdings.
• 2014 Annual Letter discussed the power of owning shares of productive businesses (and not just bonds).
• 2013 Annual Letter included Buffett’s Simple Investment Advice to Wife After His Death.

The currently-accepted definition of a “market correction” is a price drop of 10% from its peak. There have now been five corrections to the S&P 500 stock index since the bear market of 2009 (seven if you count the 9.8% and 9.9% drops). Here’s a nice visual timeline from the NY Times.

Here’s a corresponding list of all the cited reasons from Bloomberg for the corrections and near-corrections.

If you look at all of those concerns, they all seemed pretty legitimate and scary at the time. The general idea of these articles is that corrections happen regularly, so don’t freak out. Of course, I could also repeat another one of those investing truisms: “A bear market is coming. I’m not saying it’s now… but you know, there will be another bear market in the future.”

This is another item in my big folder of things that are “interesting but not going to change my investment plan”. My plan remains still to buy, hold, rebalance, and keep collecting those dividends and interest payments. David Merkel has a nice summary of how to create a portfolio that allows this hands-off attitude:

[…] my final point is this: size your position in risk assets to the level where you can live with it under bad conditions, and be happy with it under good conditions.

We’ve all been told that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, but it’s still hard to buy an investment that has been performing poorly. We should remember the historical power of diversification and that even though something may look horrible now, good news may be just around the corner. We also need to remember that whatever is hot today won’t stay that way forever.

Callan Associates updates a “periodic table” annually with the relative performance of 8 major asset classes over the last 20 years. You can find the most recent one at their website Callan.com. The best performing asset class is listed at the top, and it sorts downward until you have the worst performing asset. Here is the most recent snapshot of 1998-2017:

The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns conveys the strong case for diversification across asset classes (stocks vs. bonds), investment styles (growth vs. value), capitalizations (large vs. small), and equity markets (U.S. vs. non-U.S.). The Table highlights the uncertainty inherent in all capital markets. Rankings change every year. Also noteworthy is the difference between absolute and relative performance, as returns for the top-performing asset class span a wide range over the past 20 years.

I find it easiest to focus on a specific asset class (Color) and then visually noting how its relative performance bounces around. Last year, I noted that Emerging Markets (Orange) and MSCI World ex-US (Light Grey) have been near the bottom for a while and I was still holding them and waiting for them to bounce back. In 2017, my diversification and patience paid off and they were indeed at the top again.

E-Trade’s newest commercials (remember the baby?) have the basic premise of (1) you don’t have enough money and (2) to solve this, you should open an E-Trade brokerage account. The Super Bowl commercial was more specific: Don’t be 85 years old and #stillworkin. Here’s the full commercial from YouTube:

There are many things that can make up your net worth: cash savings, primary residence, car, IRA, taxable bonds, or private business interest. Visual Capitalist has a infographic called What Assets Make Up Wealth? that shows how this mix changes with net worth. The data is taken from the 2016 Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances.

Some overall observations:

• As net worth increases, the following components tend to make up a smaller percentage of the pie: liquid cash, primary residence, and vehicles.
• As net worth increases, the following components tend to make up a larger percentage of the pie: taxable investments (stocks, bonds, mutual funds) and business interests.
• Most multi-millionaires have business interests as the biggest component of their net worth.

I noticed a few unique quirks in the trends. At the $100k level, primary residence has its biggest share among all of the tiers. Perhaps as you go from the $10k to $100k, you are more likely to own a home and thus it temporarily becomes a bigger component of the picture.

At the $1 million level, pensions/IRAs have their biggest share among all of the tiers. Perhaps above that level, more of your net worth goes into taxable investments. Due to contribution limits, it is hard to hold more than a certain amount in tax-sheltered IRA and pension accounts.

At the $1 billion level, perhaps my eyes are deceiving me, but it appears that the vehicles sliver is nearly twice as wide than for the $10 million level. If a $10 million household has 1% in vehicles, that works out to $100,000. Okay, that’s a Mercedes S-Class or Tesla Model X. If a $1 billion household has 2% in vehicles, that’s $20 million in vehicles! Wow, those $10 million households now seem really tight! It takes a lot more money before they let loose and splurge on some fun toys.