Robinhood’s New Savings Account is FDIC-Insured! 2.05% APY

Posted on October 8, 2019 // Leave a Comment

Robinhood brokerage has finally re-launched the high-interest cash sweep option after their failed (and illegal?) 2018 mash-up of checking accounts and SIPC-insurance. Robinhood Cash Management is basically what many other places like Betterment Savings have implemented, a FDIC-insured sweep account backed by a mix of different partner banks. The interest rate is variable and currently 2.05% APY as of 10/8/19. This is a pretty competitive rate when compared to other cash alternatives. Debit card has no fees on the Allpoint ATM network. Unfortunately, as is usual with Robinhood, you’ll have to join a long waitlist first.

This was an important move for Robinhood, as many of the established giants have joined the free stock trades party – Schwab, TD Ameritrade, E-Trade, Interactive Brokers, Ally Invest. However, not all of them offer competitive rates on idle cash. Schwab is notably bad in this regard. However, Schwab does offer well-trained humans and instant customer service via phone call. Robinhood has a slick app and user interface, but they don’t readily offer a phone number. Instead, you must wait around for a reply on their online messaging service. If I put a huge chunk of my net worth in a broker, I want a phone number.

So basically, there are free trades, high interest on idle cash, and good customer service. Which are the most important to you?

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Investing //

S&P 500 Return Breakdown: Earnings, Valuations, Dividends (2015-2019)

Posted on October 6, 2019 // Leave a Comment

The financial news industry loves to provide constant updates of the S&P 500 along with endless guesses as to why it blipped up or down. I like reading about finance and it still drives me crazy! It just makes people focus on the short-term and think of the stock market like a roulette wheel. If you step back and take a longer-term view, here is a basic model for explaining the total return of the stock market:

Total Stock Returns = Earnings Growth + P/E Valuation Changes + Dividends

Here’s a quick common sense explanation:

Earnings growth. If your earnings stay the same, then all other things equal, one would expect the value of your company to stay the same as well. If earnings go up, again all other things equal, your company should be worth more, right?

Price-to-earnings ratio shows how much people are willing to pay as a multiple of earnings. When people are optimistic, the P/E ratio is high. When people are pessimistic, the P/E ratio is low. However, the overall ratio has some natural resistance points. A P/E of 10 means a 10% earning yield (ex. $100 share price and $10 of earnings per share). A P/E of 25 means a 4% earnings yield (ex. $100 share price and $4 of earnings per share).

Dividends. Cash money! In the long run, dividends tend to grow roughly at the same rate as earnings.

The WSJ Daily Shot used Bloomberg data to break down the performance of the S&P 500 total return by these components:

You can see that the dividend contribution has been pretty consistent at about 2% a year. Earnings have been going up the last 5 years, which is good news. Finally, we see that the P/E ratio has been a big part of the swings back and worth.

In The Little Book of Common Sense Investing, Jack Bogle called the changes in P/E ratio the “speculative return”, as opposed to something based on fundamentals. He made the following prediction about the future 10-year average return that book (originally published March 2007).

This was not meant to be an exact prediction. The main point was a warning that the future long-term returns were going to be lower than the historical returns of the last 25 years due to a lower dividend yield and somewhat elevated valuations. The annual return of Vanguard Total US Stock Market ETF (VTI) from March 2007 to March 2017 turned out to be 5.7%. According to the most recent quote (10/4/19), the average annual returns over the last 18 years has been 7%, last 15 years has been 9%, and the last 10 years has been 13%.

Bottom line. It can be educational to see the stock market return broken down into its parts: earnings growth, valuation change, and dividends. Much of the roller coaster performance we see every year is just the P/E ratio swinging back and forth. If you take a step back, you might find it easier to ignore the short-term volatility and focus on the long-term drivers of returns.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Best Interest Rates on Cash – October 2019

Posted on October 2, 2019 // 2 Comments

Here’s my monthly roundup of the best interest rates on cash for October 2019, roughly sorted from shortest to longest maturities. Rates are lower across the board due to the recent Fed rate cut. I track these rates because I keep a full 12 months of expenses as a cash cushion and also invest in longer-term CDs (often at lesser-known credit unions) when they yield more than bonds. Check out my Ultimate Rate-Chaser Calculator to get an idea of how much extra interest you’d earn if you are moving money between accounts. Rates listed are available to everyone nationwide. Rates checked as of 10/2/19.

High-yield savings accounts
While the huge megabanks like to get away with 0.01% APY, it’s easy to open a new “piggy-back” savings account and simply move some funds over from your existing checking account. The interest rates on savings accounts can drop at any time, so I prioritize banks with a history of competitive rates. Some banks will bait you and then lower the rates in the hopes that you are too lazy to leave.

Short-term guaranteed rates (1 year and under)
A common question is what to do with a big pile of cash that you’re waiting to deploy shortly (just sold your house, just sold your business, legal settlement, inheritance). My usual advice is to keep things simple and take your time. If not a savings account, then put it in a flexible short-term CD under the FDIC limits until you have a plan.

  • No Penalty CDs offer a fixed interest rate that can never go down, but you can still take out your money (once) without any fees if you want to use it elsewhere. Marcus Bank has a 7-month No Penalty CD at 2.10% APY with a $500 minimum deposit. CIT Bank has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 2.05% APY with a $1,000 minimum deposit. You may wish to open multiple CDs in smaller increments for more flexibility.
  • Total Direct Bank has a 12-month CD at 2.50% APY ($25,000 minimum) with an early withdrawal penalty of 3 months of interest. Navy Federal Credit Union has a special 9-month CD at 2.25% APY ($1,000 minimum), but you must have a military affiliation to join (includes being a relative of a veteran). Customers Bank has 2.25% APY ($25,000 minimum) on their liquid Ascent Money Market with a rate guarantee until 6/30/2020 (almost 10 months from today).

Money market mutual funds + Ultra-short bond ETFs
If you like to keep cash in a brokerage account, beware that many brokers pay out very little interest on their default cash sweep funds (and keep the difference for themselves). The following money market and ultra-short bond funds are not FDIC-insured, but may be a good option if you have idle cash and cheap/free commissions.

  • Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund currently pays an 2.00% SEC yield. The default sweep option is the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund, which has an SEC yield of 1.94%. You can manually move the money over to Prime if you meet the $3,000 minimum investment.
  • Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund currently pays 2.16% SEC yield ($3,000 min) and 2.26% SEC Yield ($50,000 min). The average duration is ~1 year, so there is more interest rate risk.
  • The PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active Bond ETF (MINT) has a 2.32% SEC yield and the iShares Short Maturity Bond ETF (NEAR) has a 2.36% SEC yield while holding a portfolio of investment-grade bonds with an average duration of ~6 months.

Treasury Bills and Ultra-short Treasury ETFs
Another option is to buy individual Treasury bills which come in a variety of maturities from 4-weeks to 52-weeks. You can also invest in ETFs that hold a rotating basket of short-term Treasury Bills for you, while charging a small management fee for doing so. T-bill interest is exempt from state and local income taxes.

  • You can build your own T-Bill ladder at TreasuryDirect.gov or via a brokerage account with a bond desk like Vanguard and Fidelity. Here are the current Treasury Bill rates. As of 10/1/19, a 4-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 1.79% annualized interest and a 52-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 1.74% annualized interest (!).
  • The Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF (GBIL) has a 1.99% SEC yield and the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) has a 1.85% SEC yield. GBIL appears to have a slightly longer average maturity than BIL.

US Savings Bonds
Series I Savings Bonds offer rates that are linked to inflation and backed by the US government. You must hold them for at least a year. There are annual purchase limits. If you redeem them within 5 years there is a penalty of the last 3 months of interest.

  • “I Bonds” bought between May 2019 and October 2019 will earn a 1.90% rate for the first six months. The rate of the subsequent 6-month period will be based on inflation again. More info here.
  • In mid-October 2019, the CPI will be announced and you will have a short period where you will have a very close estimate of the rate for the next 12 months. I will have another post up at that time.

Prepaid Cards with Attached Savings Accounts
A small subset of prepaid debit cards have an “attached” FDIC-insured savings account with exceptionally high interest rates. The negatives are that balances are capped, and there are many fees that you must be careful to avoid (lest they eat up your interest). Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others do. There is a long list of previous offers that have already disappeared with little notice. I don’t personally recommend nor use any of these anymore.

  • The only notable card left in this category is Mango Money at 6% APY on up to $2,500, but there are many hoops to jump through. Requirements include $1,500+ in “signature” purchases and a minimum balance of $25.00 at the end of the month.

Rewards checking accounts
These unique checking accounts pay above-average interest rates, but with unique risks. You have to jump through certain hoops, and if you make a mistake you won’t earn any interest for that month. Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others do. Rates can also drop to near-zero quickly, leaving a “bait-and-switch” feeling. I don’t use any of these anymore, but the Orion offer is worth consideration.

  • Orion FCU Premium Checking has 4.00% APY on balances up to $30,000 if you meet make $500+ in direct deposits and 8 debit card “signature” purchases each month. Consumers Credit Union Free Rewards Checking has up to 5.09% APY on balances up to $10,000 if you meet make $500+ in ACH deposits, 12 debit card “signature” purchases, and spend $1,000 on their credit card each month. Find a locally-restricted rewards checking account at DepositAccounts.
  • If you’re looking for a high-interest checking account without debit card transaction requirements then the rate won’t be as high, but take a look at MemoryBank at 1.15% APY.

Certificates of deposit (greater than 1 year)
CDs offer higher rates, but come with an early withdrawal penalty. By finding a bank CD with a reasonable early withdrawal penalty, you can enjoy higher rates but maintain access in a true emergency. Alternatively, consider building a CD ladder of different maturity lengths (ex. 1/2/3/4/5-years) such that you have access to part of the ladder each year, but your blended interest rate is higher than a savings account. When one CD matures, use that money to buy another 5-year CD to keep the ladder going. Some CDs also offer “add-ons” where you can deposit more funds if rates drop.

  • You could build a CD ladder at First National Bank of America at 2.70% APY for 5-year, 2.60% APY for 4-year, 2.55% APY for 3-year, 2.50% APY for 2-year, and 2.45% APY for 1-year.
  • 5-year CD rates have been dropping at many banks and credit unions, following the overall interest rate curve. A good rate is now about 3% APY, with Hiway Federal Credit Union offering 3.00% APY ($25,000 min) or 2.80% APY ($500 min) on a 5-year CD with an early withdrawal penalty of 12 months of interest. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization Minnesota Recreation and Park Foundation ($10 fee).
  • Navy Federal Credit Union has a special 18-month cert at 2.60% APY ($1,000 minimum) and a 5-year cert at 3.00% APY, but you must have a military affiliation to join (includes being a relative of a veteran).
  • You can buy certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. You may need an account to see the rates. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance and easy laddering, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. The rates are not competitive right now. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs listed by Fidelity.

Longer-term Instruments
I’d use these with caution due to increased interest rate risk, but I still track them to see the rest of the current yield curve.

  • Willing to lock up your money for 10+ years? You can buy long-term certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. As of this writing, I am seeing no inventory on 7-year and 10-year CDs. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs from Fidelity.
  • How about two decades? Series EE Savings Bonds are not indexed to inflation, but they have a unique guarantee that the value will double in value in 20 years, which equals a guaranteed return of 3.5% a year. However, if you don’t hold for that long, you’ll be stuck with the normal rate which is quite low (currently a sad 0.10% rate). I view this as a huge early withdrawal penalty. You could also view it as a hedge against prolonged deflation, but only if you can hold on for 20 years. As of 10/2/19, the 20-year Treasury Bond rate was 1.90%.

All rates were checked as of 10/2/19.

Filed Under: Banking, Deals & Offers, Investing //

Fidelity, Schwab, TD Ameritrade, E-Trade, and Interactive Brokers Now All With $0 Stock, ETF, and Options Trades

Posted on October 2, 2019 // 16 Comments

Update: Fidelity, Schwab, TD Ameritrade, E-Trade, Interactive Brokers, Ally Invest all now offer free stock trades. The new differentiators are things like user interface, customer service, and interest on cash sweep accounts.

Original post:

Schwab just announced the elimination of online commissions for stocks, ETFs and options listed on U.S. or Canadian exchanges as of 10/7/19 (press release). TD Ameritrade responded later the same day by matching that pricing as of 10/3/19. This will affect retail customers and also the many folks who have their portfolio run by financial advisors that use Schwab and TD Ameritrade as custodians. This could also be hard news for the feisty little guys who went there first like Robinhood, Webull, and Firstrade.

Commissions have dropped gradually for a long time, but it was still bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars to these publicly-traded corporations. That said, commissions only made up about 4% of Schwab’s net revenue. TD Ameritrade’s move was more surprising since commissions make up about 16% of their net revenue (they historically have a bigger focus on heavy traders).

I would note that TD Ameritrade and Schwab will likely keep making millions of dollars by accepting payment for order flow. This fact was always brought up with the startups that offered free trades first, but I have yet to see any hard evidence that individual investors are significantly harmed by this practice. The payments work out to about 1/10th of a cent per share traded.

I would worry more about them making money off the interest on your cash sweep. Schwab’s FDIC-insured cash sweep pays a sad 0.12% APY on all balances under $1,000,000 as of 10/1/19. TD Ameritrade’s FDIC-insured cash sweep pays a sad 0.01% APY on all balances under $25,000 as of 10/1/19.

The bigger picture here is the move away from trading and towards portfolio management and financial advice. More and more individual investors are saving in their 401ks and IRAs and such towards a million-dollar portfolio instead of traditional pensions (that were also worth a million or more, you just didn’t notice because it gave you $3,000 a month forever instead). The result is a huge fight over the trillions of dollars up for grabs, and it looks like free trades and low-cost ETF portfolio management are becoming standard equipment.

If everyone joins them at zero, the focus will move from pricing to things like customer service, convenience/user experience, and the cost to “upgrade” to more advanced components of financial advice. I actually look forward to that service-oriented competition more than this pricing war (I don’t trade much anyway). Brokers might also start expanding into new areas to replace those old stock trade profits.

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Investing //

Breaking Down the Components of Financial Advice

Posted on October 1, 2019 // Leave a Comment

Vanguard has been relatively quiet after an SEC filing revealed their plans for a new digital-only advisory service called Vanguard Digital Advisor Services (VDAS). They have yet to send out any press releases or direct announcement about their new service. However, Vanguard is definitely working hard in the background on their advisory practices.

Earlier this month, they released a whitepaper called Assessing the Value of Advice based on their Vanguard Personal Advisor Services, which includes human advisors. They introduced a framework for measuring value via three components: portfolio, financial, and emotional.

Vanguard also published this short article Behind our passion for advice: Better outcomes for everyone that shows they want to impact the advice industry in the same way they forever changed the mutual fund industry.

Now more than ever, we see investors’ long-term success tied not only to the funds they use but also to the advice they receive. For more than 40 years, we’ve been champions in the mutual fund industry for accessibility, affordability, and alignment with clients’ interests. This has enabled investors to keep more of what they earn and to more easily reach their financial goals. We aim to do the same for financial advice.

This chart explores what a digital-only financial advisor can provide as compared to a human advisor:

With technology as our tailwind, opportunities abound to improve the ease of use, quality, and affordability of advice. Activities that once required time and effort from investors can now be automated and simplified. Rebalancing a portfolio, executing a tax-efficient spending strategy, or determining an optimal cash position can be done using algorithms and artificial intelligence. Technology has automated the common portfolio management tasks (the blue and the orange in the chart below). These core advice building blocks are more accurately and easily implemented than ever before, and technology allows us to provide them for less than 20 basis points. Even the most experienced and disciplined investor can benefit from advisory services at that price.

It certainly sounds like a description of Vanguard Digital Advisor Services (VDAS). I also hope they will more clearly define the added benefits of their Personal Advisor Services.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

How To Lose Your Money Investing

Posted on September 27, 2019 // 1 Comment

Sometimes the best solution to a problem comes by approaching it backwards. Charlie Munger often spoke about the principle of inversion. Instead of looking for things that you should do to achieve a goal, make a list of things you would do to make sure you never reach that goal. Then do whatever you can to avoid those things.

Safal Niveshak offers us this related graphic in his post 5 Ways to Destroy Your Wealth. I’m always a sucker for a clever Venn diagram…

Definitely a good list. However, I would say this graphic is more focused on “How To Destroy Wealth Investing“, as I can think of plenty of other ways to destroy wealth…

Filed Under: Investing //

My Money Blog Portfolio Income and Withdrawal Rate – September 2019 (Q3)

Posted on September 17, 2019 // 8 Comments

dividendmono225One of the biggest problems in retirement planning is making sure a pile of money lasts throughout your retirement. I have read hundreds of articles about this topic, and there is no single solution. My imperfect (!) solution is to first build a portfolio designed for total return using assets that have enough faith in to hold through an extended downturn. I do not look for the highest income – no specialized ETFs, no high-dividend-only stocks, no high-yield bonds.

Then, only after that do I check out how much it distributes in dividends and interest. Dividends are the portion of profits that businesses have decided they don’t need to reinvest into their business. The analogy I fall back on is owning a rental property. If you are reliably getting rent checks that increase with inflation, you can sit back calmly and ignore what the house might sell for on the open market.

I track the “TTM Yield” or “12-Month Yield” from Morningstar, which the sum of a fund’s total trailing 12-month interest and dividend payments divided by the last month’s ending share price (NAV) plus any capital gains distributed over the same period. I prefer this measure because it is based on historical distributions and not a forecast. Below is a very close approximation of my investment portfolio (2/3rd stocks and 1/3rd bonds).

Asset Class / Fund % of Portfolio Trailing 12-Month Yield (Taken 9/17/19) Yield Contribution
US Total Stock
Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund (VTI, VTSAX)		 25% 1.85% 0.46%
US Small Value
Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR) 		5% 2.35% 0.12%
International Total Stock
Vanguard Total International Stock Market Fund (VXUS, VTIAX) 		25% 3.05% 0.76%
Emerging Markets
Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) 		5% 2.71% 0.14%
US Real Estate
Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VNQ, VGSLX) 		6% 3.29% 0.20%
Intermediate-Term High Quality Bonds
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) 		17% 2.20% 0.37%
Inflation-Linked Treasury Bonds
Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (VTIP) 		17% 2.12% 0.36%
Totals 100% 2.41%

 

Here is a chart showing how this 12-month trailing income rate has varied over the last five years.

One of the things I like about using this number is that when stock prices drop, this percentage metric usually goes up – which makes me feel better in a gloomy market. When stock prices go up, this percentage metric usually goes down, which keeps me from getting too euphoric. I see it as a very conservative, valuation-based withdrawal rate metric due to our very long retirement horizon of 40+ years.

In practical terms, I let all of my dividends and interest accumulate without automatic reinvestment. I treat this money as my “paycheck”. Then, as with my real paycheck, I can choose to either spend it or reinvest in more stocks and bonds. This number does not dictate how much we actually spend every year, but it gives me an idea of how comfortable I am with our withdrawal rate.

I am a proponent of aggressively saving, and then using the potential income that brings to improve your daily lifestyle. Instead of sitting on a beach, we used our nest egg to allow us to work less hours in a more flexible manner as parents of young children. Others may use it to start a new business, travel around the world, do charity or volunteer work, and so on. The income from our portfolio lets us “work less and live more” now as I now fear running out of time more than running out of money.

(If you’re still in the accumulation phase, you don’t really need to worry about this number. I believe a 3% withdrawal rate remains a reasonable target for something retiring young (before age 50) and a 4% withdrawal rate is a reasonable target for one retiring at a more traditional age (closer to 65). If you are young, instead focus on your earning potential via better career moves, investing in your skill set, and/or look for entrepreneurial opportunities where you own equity in a business.)

Filed Under: Goals, Investing, Retirement //

My Money Blog Portfolio Asset Allocation Update, September 2019 (Q3)

Posted on September 17, 2019 // 7 Comments

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Here’s my portfolio update for the third quarter of 2019. Most of my dividends arrive on a quarterly basis, and this helps me determine where to reinvest them. These are my real-world holdings, including 401k/403b/IRAs, taxable brokerage accounts, and savings bonds but excluding our house, cash reserves, and a few side investments. The goal of this portfolio is to create sustainable income that keeps up with inflation to cover our household expenses.

Actual Asset Allocation and Holdings

I use both Personal Capital and a custom Google Spreadsheet to track my investment holdings. The Personal Capital financial tracking app (free, my review) automatically logs into my accounts, adds up my balances, tracks my performance, and calculates my asset allocation. I still use my manual Google Spreadsheet (free, instructions) because it helps me calculate how much I need in each asset class to rebalance back towards my target asset allocation.

Here are my YTD performance and current asset allocation visually, per the “Holdings” and “Allocation” tabs of my Personal Capital account, respectively:

Stock Holdings
Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund (VTI, VTSAX)
Vanguard Total International Stock Market Fund (VXUS, VTIAX)
WisdomTree SmallCap Dividend ETF (DES)
Vanguard Small Value ETF (VBR)
Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VNQ, VGSLX)

Bond Holdings
Vanguard Limited-Term Tax-Exempt Fund (VMLTX, VMLUX)
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund (VWITX, VWIUX)
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Fund (VFITX, VFIUX)
Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (VIPSX, VAIPX)
Fidelity Inflation-Protected Bond Index Fund (FIPDX)
iShares Barclays TIPS Bond ETF (TIP)
Individual TIPS securities
U.S. Savings Bonds (Series I)

Target Asset Allocation. Our overall goal is to include asset classes that will provide long-term returns above inflation, distribute income via dividends and interest, and finally offer some historical tendencies to balance each other out. I make a small bet that US Small Value and Emerging Markets will have higher future long-term returns (along with some higher volatility) than the more large and broad indexes, although I could be wrong.

I don’t hold commodities, gold, or bitcoin. While you could argue for each of these asset classes, I believe that it is important to imagine an asset class doing poorly for a long time, with bad news constantly surrounding it, and only hold the ones where you still think you can maintain faith based on a solid foundation of knowledge and experience. That’s just not the case for me with certain asset classes.

Stocks Breakdown

  • 38% US Total Market
  • 7% US Small-Cap Value
  • 38% International Total Market
  • 7% Emerging Markets
  • 10% US Real Estate (REIT)

Bonds Breakdown

  • 33% US Treasury Bonds, intermediate
  • 33% High-Quality Municipal Bonds (taxable)
  • 33% US Treasury Inflation-Protected Bonds (tax-deferred)

I have settled into a long-term target ratio of 67% stocks and 33% bonds (2:1 ratio) within our investment strategy of buy, hold, and occasionally rebalance. I will use the dividends and interest to rebalance whenever possible in order to avoid taxable gains. (I allow it drift a bit either way.) With a self-managed, simple portfolio of low-cost funds, we minimize management fees, commissions, and taxes.

Holdings commentary. On the stocks side, somehow despite all of the various news stories stock prices have been resilient. I’m like a lot of other people and waiting for the next recession to come, but I also know to stay in the game. US stocks have beaten international stocks for a while, but I remain satisfied with my mix, knowing that I will own whatever successful businesses come out of the US, China, or wherever in the future.

On the bond side, my primary objective is to hold high-quality bonds with a short-to-intermediate duration of under 5 years or so. This means US Treasuries, TIPS, or investment-grade municipal bonds. I don’t want to worry about my bonds. I then tweak the specific breakdown based on my tax-deferred space available, the tax-effective rates of muni bonds, and the real interest rates of TIPS. Right now, it is roughly 1/3rd Treasuries, 1/3 Muni bonds, and 1/3rd TIPS. It looks like I need to redirect my dividends into more bonds.

Performance commentary and benchmarks. According to Personal Capital, my portfolio went up 13% so far in 2019. I see that during the same period the S&P 500 has gone up nearly 20%, Foreign Developed stocks up nearly 13%, and the US Aggregate bond index was up about 7%.

An alternative benchmark for my portfolio is 50% Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund and 50% Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund – one is 60/40 and the other is 80/20 so it also works out to 70% stocks and 30% bonds. That benchmark would have a total return of +14.82% for 2019 YTD.

I’ll share about more about the income in a separate post.

Filed Under: Goals, Investing, Retirement //

Reminder: Nobody Can Predict Future Interest Rates (Especially the Experts)

Posted on September 12, 2019 // 11 Comments

The financial prediction industry is simply mind-boggling to me. There is zero long-term memory or accountability. You can make all the predictions you want about the stock market, gold prices, and interest rates, and nobody remembers your bad calls. You get a contrarian call right, and all of a sudden you’re on all the TV interviews and news articles.

Allow me to remind you of what the Wall Street Journal’s panel of economists predicted in January 2019 as to what interest rates would look like the rest of the year (WSJ source). I have updated the chart with the current rates (click to enlarge). This was less than 10 months ago!

Apologies for the sloppy graphics, but you can see that 10-year rates dropped down to 2% in July, down even further to 1.5% at the beginning of September, with a slight bounce up to around 1.75% today. Not a single prediction was even close to reality.

When I was stocking up on 4% APY 5-year CDs last year, I was reading comments like “Why lock in such a low rate? You’re going to see much higher rates soon!”. Now, all of the comments are “You better lock in that 3% CD before rates drop further!”

Predicting interest rates even only as far as the next 12 months, is incredibly hard. You can’t do it reliably. Nobody can do it reliably. You might get it right, but that is called luck and not skill.

Individual investors don’t have an advantage in predicting future rates, but they do have their own set of special advantages. As an individual investor, you can purchase certificates from any FDIC-insured bank or NCUA-insured credit union if the interest rate is better than the comparable US Treasury. Over the last couple of years, I was able to buy multiple 5-year CDs at 4% APY when the 5-year Treasury was well below 3%. You have to act decisively, but any individual can do it. Pension funds and other institutional investors can’t.

I have a ladder of 5-year CDs. Each year, I buy a 5-year CD when a compelling interest rate arises. I don’t care about the rate direction, as long as I get about 1% above US Treasuries. After 5 years of doing this, you will have a ladder of CDs such that each year one CD is maturing and you can simply reinvest the funds each year. If I managed to put one year of expenses into each rung of this ladder, I now have 5 years of expenses in the bank, fully-insured and ready to go in case of financial emergency. An extra 1% on each $100,000 is $1,000 a year. That’s real money.

If this sounds like too much trouble to open accounts at multiple banks, you can always still with a Total US Bond fund (like AGG or BND). You’re essentially buying an ladder of bonds. BND has an average effective maturity of 8 years and average duration of 6 years. You might also buy it automatically inside a Vanguard Target Retirement Fund. Just keep buying it and ignore any talk about “The Fed”. Keep the chart above in your mind.

Filed Under: Banking, Behavioral Economics, Investing, Retirement //

Best Interest Rates on Cash – September 2019

Posted on September 3, 2019 // 12 Comments

Here’s my monthly roundup of the best interest rates on cash for September 2019, roughly sorted from shortest to longest maturities. I track these rates because I keep a full 12 months of expenses as a cash cushion and also invest in longer-term CDs (often at lesser-known credit unions) when they yield more than bonds. Check out my Ultimate Rate-Chaser Calculator to get an idea of how much extra interest you’d earn if you are moving money between accounts. Rates listed are available to everyone nationwide. Rates checked as of 9/3/19.

High-yield savings accounts
While the huge megabanks like to get away with 0.01% APY, it’s easy to open a new “piggy-back” savings account and simply move some funds over from your existing checking account. The interest rates on savings accounts can drop at any time, so I prioritize banks with a history of competitive rates. Some banks will bait you and then lower the rates in the hopes that you are too lazy to leave.

Short-term guaranteed rates (1 year and under)
A common question is what to do with a big pile of cash that you’re waiting to deploy shortly (just sold your house, just sold your business, legal settlement, inheritance). My usual advice is to keep things simple and take your time. If not a savings account, then put it in a flexible short-term CD under the FDIC limits until you have a plan.

  • No Penalty CDs offer a fixed interest rate that can never go down, but you can still take out your money (once) without any fees if you want to use it elsewhere. Marcus Bank has a 7-month No Penalty CD at 2.25% APY and a 11-month No Penalty CD at 2.20% APY with a $500 minimum deposit. Ally Bank has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 2.20% APY with a $25,000 minimum deposit. You may wish to open multiple CDs in smaller increments for more flexibility.
  • Total Direct Bank has a 12-month CD at 2.60% APY ($25,000 minimum) with an early withdrawal penalty of 3 months of interest. Navy Federal Credit Union has a special 9-month CD at 2.50% APY ($1,000 minimum), but you must have a military affiliation to join (includes being a relative of a veteran).

Money market mutual funds + Ultra-short bond ETFs
If you like to keep cash in a brokerage account, beware that many brokers pay out very little interest on their default cash sweep funds (and keep the difference for themselves). The following money market and ultra-short bond funds are not FDIC-insured, but may be a good option if you have idle cash and cheap/free commissions.

  • Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund currently pays an 2.12% SEC yield. The default sweep option is the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund, which has an SEC yield of 2.08%. You can manually move the money over to Prime if you meet the $3,000 minimum investment.
  • Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund currently pays 2.21% SEC yield ($3,000 min) and 2.31% SEC Yield ($50,000 min). The average duration is ~1 year, so there is more interest rate risk.
  • The PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active Bond ETF (MINT) has a 2.40% SEC yield and the iShares Short Maturity Bond ETF (NEAR) has a 2.41% SEC yield while holding a portfolio of investment-grade bonds with an average duration of ~6 months.

Treasury Bills and Ultra-short Treasury ETFs
Another option is to buy individual Treasury bills which come in a variety of maturities from 4-weeks to 52-weeks. You can also invest in ETFs that hold a rotating basket of short-term Treasury Bills for you, while charging a small management fee for doing so. T-bill interest is exempt from state and local income taxes.

  • You can build your own T-Bill ladder at TreasuryDirect.gov or via a brokerage account with a bond desk like Vanguard and Fidelity. Here are the current Treasury Bill rates. As of 9/3/19, a 4-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 2.07% annualized interest and a 52-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 1.74% annualized interest (!).
  • The Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF (GBIL) has a 1.99% SEC yield and the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) has a 1.92% SEC yield. GBIL appears to have a slightly longer average maturity than BIL.

US Savings Bonds
Series I Savings Bonds offer rates that are linked to inflation and backed by the US government. You must hold them for at least a year. There are annual purchase limits. If you redeem them within 5 years there is a penalty of the last 3 months of interest.

  • “I Bonds” bought between May 2019 and October 2019 will earn a 1.90% rate for the first six months. The rate of the subsequent 6-month period will be based on inflation again. More info here.
  • In mid-October 2019, the CPI will be announced and you will have a short period where you will have a very close estimate of the rate for the next 12 months. I will have another post up at that time.

Prepaid Cards with Attached Savings Accounts
A small subset of prepaid debit cards have an “attached” FDIC-insured savings account with exceptionally high interest rates. The negatives are that balances are capped, and there are many fees that you must be careful to avoid (lest they eat up your interest). Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others do. There is a long list of previous offers that have already disappeared with little notice. I don’t personally recommend nor use any of these anymore.

  • The only notable card left in this category is Mango Money at 6% APY on up to $2,500, but there are many hoops to jump through. Requirements include $1,500+ in “signature” purchases and a minimum balance of $25.00 at the end of the month.

Rewards checking accounts
These unique checking accounts pay above-average interest rates, but with unique risks. You have to jump through certain hoops, and if you make a mistake you won’t earn any interest for that month. Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others do. Rates can also drop to near-zero quickly, leaving a “bait-and-switch” feeling. I don’t use any of these anymore, but the Orion offer is worth consideration.

  • The newest one is Orion FCU Premium Checking at 4.00% APY on balances up to $30,000 if you meet make $500+ in direct deposits and 8 debit card “signature” purchases each month. One has been around for while is the Consumers CU Free Rewards Checking at up to 5.09% APY on balances up to $10,000 if you meet make $500+ in ACH deposits, 12 debit card “signature” purchases, and spend $1,000 on their credit card each month. Find a locally-restricted rewards checking account at DepositAccounts.
  • If you’re looking for a high-interest checking account without debit card transaction requirements then the rate won’t be as high, but take a look at MemoryBank at 1.40% APY.

Certificates of deposit (greater than 1 year)
CDs offer higher rates, but come with an early withdrawal penalty. By finding a bank CD with a reasonable early withdrawal penalty, you can enjoy higher rates but maintain access in a true emergency. Alternatively, consider building a CD ladder of different maturity lengths (ex. 1/2/3/4/5-years) such that you have access to part of the ladder each year, but your blended interest rate is higher than a savings account. When one CD matures, use that money to buy another 5-year CD to keep the ladder going. Some CDs also offer “add-ons” where you can deposit more funds if rates drop.

  • You could build a CD ladder at First National Bank of America at 2.85% APY for 5-year, 2.75% APY for 4-year, 2.65% APY for 3-year, 2.60% APY for 2-year, and 2.50% APY for 1-year.
  • 5-year CD rates have been dropping at many banks and credit unions, following the overall interest rate curve. A good rate is now about 3.00% APY, with Commonwealth One Federal Credit Union offering a 5-year CD at 3.11% APY ($1,000 minimum) with an early withdrawal penalty of 180 days of interest. Higher rates with $50k an $100k deposits. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization.
  • Navy Federal Credit Union has a special 18-month cert at 3.00% APY ($1,000 minimum) and a 5-year cert at 3.25% APY, but you must have a military affiliation to join (includes being a relative of a veteran).
  • You can buy certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. You may need an account to see the rates. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance and easy laddering, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. The rates are not interesting right now. As of this writing, Vanguard is showing a 2-year non-callable CD at 1.80% APY. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs listed by Fidelity.

Longer-term Instruments
I’d use these with caution due to increased interest rate risk, but I still track them to see the rest of the current yield curve.

  • Willing to lock up your money for 10+ years? You can buy long-term certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. As of this writing, I am seeing no inventory on 7-year and 10-year CDs. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs from Fidelity.
  • How about two decades? Series EE Savings Bonds are not indexed to inflation, but they have a unique guarantee that the value will double in value in 20 years, which equals a guaranteed return of 3.5% a year. However, if you don’t hold for that long, you’ll be stuck with the normal rate which is quite low (currently a sad 0.10% rate). I view this as a huge early withdrawal penalty. However, you could also view it as a hedge against prolonged deflation, but only if you can hold on for 20 years. As of 9/3/19, the 20-year Treasury Bond rate was 1.77%.

All rates were checked as of 9/3/19.

Filed Under: Banking, Deals & Offers, Investing //

Public App Review (Matador): Free Dollar-Based Stock Trades, Free Stock Slice

Posted on August 28, 2019 // 9 Comments

Updated. Public, formerly known as Matador, is a new brokerage app that combines several different features that you might have seen separately elsewhere:

  • Free dollar-based stock trades with no minimum balance. Not only can you trade any stock for free, you can also choose to trade fractional shares in real-time for free as well. For example, Google stock may trade at over $1,000 a share, but you can buy just $50 worth if you want with no commission.
  • Free stock slice via referral. Details below.
  • Social investing. You can “follow” other investors and see their portfolio holdings and recent trade activity.

Referral bonus details. Here is my Public referral link for a free slice of stock. Thanks if you use it! The updated terms of this detail are a bit vague – my app just says a “free slice of stock”. Here is their link with full terms. Sounds like the value varies, up to $50. Note that you are not allowed to withdraw the value of the free stock received for up to 90 days after the free promotional stock is received.

Interest on cash sweep. You may have seen that Public used to offer 2.5% interest on idle cash up to $10,000. This was a pretty high interest rate at the time, but as after the Fed rate drops in early 2020, it was apparently unsustainable. As of March 30th, 2020, Public stopped paying interest on idle cash.

Other inner details. Public (formerly Matador) is part of T3 Securities, which is a broker-dealer member of FINRA and SIPC. The clearing firm is Apex Clearing, as with many other similar apps. Public uses Plaid to link your external bank accounts for ACH transfers, which is a widely-used third-party service. The default setting is free paperless trade confirmations and statements, otherwise a physical trade confirmation is $2 a pop and a paper statement is $5 a pop.

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Investing //

Inflation-Adjusted (Real) US Treasury Bond Yield, 1955-2019

Posted on August 27, 2019 // 8 Comments

I was looking for a historical chart of the 30-year US Treasury yield that adjusted for inflation, as the yields were much higher in the 1970s and 1980s but inflation was quite high as well. The closest I could find was this chart of the inflation-adjusted (real) 10-year US Treasury yield. (Please let me know if you have something better.)

Taken from Bonds Are Frickin’ Expensive, Cliff Asness of AQR takes the nominal 10-year Treasury yield and subtracts the 3-year trailing annualized CPI inflation. I prefer the use of hard numbers over a forecast.

You can see that in the past, the inflation-adjusted yield has varied quite widely. There have been zero and negative real yields, and there have been really high positive real yields. From a historical perspective, right now bonds do not yield very much and the overall curve is rather flat. The article concludes:

So, the bottom line is, as measured by real bond yield, U.S. Treasury bonds are really frickin’ expensive. Measured by the slope of the yield curve they are really frickin’ expensive. But, measured by the average of these two simple variables, they are 60+ year just about record-low frickin’ expensive. This result is not caused by, but is certainly exacerbated by, the (perhaps) surprisingly uncorrelated nature of slope and real bond yield, thus making both so low and at the same time considerably more surprising.

The usual disclaimer against timing bond rates is thrown in there, but it felt only half-hearted.

I have no plans to sell my high-quality bonds because they have historically been a reliable buffer against stock drops:

Still, it would sure be nice if they actually gave me some positive real return…

Filed Under: Investing //
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