Rule of Thumb: When To Pay Off The Mortgage Early

There was a lot of good discussion in my lengthy early mortgage payoff post. Now instead of lengthy details, let me try out a quick rule of thumb about early mortgage payoff. Recall from Wikipedia:

A rule of thumb is a principle with broad application that is not intended to be strictly accurate or reliable for every situation. It is an easily learned and easily applied procedure for approximately calculating or recalling some value, or for making some determination.

So roughly applicable to many – but not all – situations.

Early Mortgage Payoff Rule of Thumb

You should time your mortgage payoff date to coincide with the date of retirement, or semi-retirement. Here, I would define retirement or semi-retirement as a time when you’ll be wholly or partially dependent on non-work income like Social Security, pensions, annuity payments, stock dividends, or other investment income. A downshift into a lower-paying second career would count as a semi-retirement.

In my humble opinion, this quick and dirty rule will help you balance the opportunity to invest in potentially higher-returning investments (stock mutual funds, dividend-paying stocks, real estate, high-yield bonds) with pursuing the benefits of having a fully-owned house (less stress, less leverage, lower required monthly expenses, lower required withdrawals from investments and thus lower marginal tax rates).

Example 1. 20s, 30s, 40s with long future career. You love your job and/or want to be doing it for the next 25+ years. In this case you have lots of human capital and a regular stream of income. You also won’t be needed to cash out your retirement assets for a long-time, making it much more likely that your stocks will achieve their higher average returns. Take on the 4% interest rate fixed for 30 years, and over time your salary will rise with inflation while your payment stays the same.

If anything, you could do a DIY biweekly payment plan and pay off your mortgage in under 24 years with less “pain” due to a behavioral trick (works best for those on a biweekly paycheck schedule).

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Fidelity iShares Commission-Free ETF List Updated

Fidelity recently announced new changes to their commission-free ETF list.

When Blackrock iShares introduced their 10 new Core ETFs, I wondered how they would market these ETFs. Well, that question was answered today with Fidelity and Blackrock announcing a “long-term strategic alliance”, otherwise known as Blackrock writes a big fat check to Fidelity:

For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive, long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain FBS platforms and investment programs.

The move definitely makes sense though, as Fidelity doesn’t have a broad line of in-house ETFs and iShares doesn’t have their own brokerage arm. In general, I think the move is a positive one for Fidelity customers as they now have exposure to a much wider range of low-cost index ETFs meant for long-term holding periods. There are now a total of 65 iShares ETFs where you can avoid the standard $7.95 trade commission. You could build a low-cost, diversified portfolio with just these ETFs, resulting in a weighted expense ratio of just 0.10%:

33% Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market (ITOT)
33% Core MSCI Total International Stock (IXUS)
33% Core Total U.S. Bond Market (AGG)

However, a few big names were also removed from their commission free list – iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA), and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), and most of their Russell Index-based ETFs. If you had a large position in one of these ETFs, now you’re either stuck paying the standard $7.95 commission or you’d have to replace them with their new “Core” versions and thus incur possible capital gains taxes. I’d certainly be annoyed. There will be a short grace period (details below).

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Pay Off Mortgage Early vs. Save More For Retirement? Digging Deep Into The Details

In the world of personal finance, you can always generate a good debate if you talk about paying off your mortgage early. The argument usually boils down to something like this:

If your interest rate is 4%, then paying extra towards that mortgage will earn you 4%. If you think you can earn more than 4% elsewhere, then don’t pay off your mortgage.

However, when it comes down to if YOU should pay extra towards YOUR mortgage, the above statement is an oversimplication. As Einstein is credited with saying, “Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.”

Since I am faced with this decision myself, let’s address the implied assumptions in the sentence above and all the other little details that go into the decision.

Warning: This is a braindump post and thus rather long and detailed…

Assumption #1: Your mortgage interest is 100% tax-deductible.

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Barron’s Best Online Broker Rankings 2013

The stock market is at or near all-time highs, which means that brokerage firms should be seeing a lot more interest (for better or worse). Weekly business newspaper Barron’s just released their 2013 annual broker survey rankings. Here’s a snippet about their criteria:

We looked at eight categories of service, examining what can be traded online, how the tools work together across platforms, the design and capabilities of mobile platforms, educational offerings and customer service, as well as the nuts and bolts of placing and executing a trade. We closely scrutinized the various tools available for finding appropriate trades, including scanners and charts. When examining costs, we considered stock and options commissions as well as platform or maintenance fees, margin debt, and charges for transferring an account out.

Barron’s notes that overall, the online experience is improving with a growing number of brokers offering their clients real-time quotes, easier-to-use websites, and a better mobile trading experience. They also admit that their overall rankings are based on the needs of their subscribers – namely “wealthy, active traders”. As such, their overall winner was again Interactive Brokers, a broker designed for highly-active traders with an extensive feature set and low commissions. However, IB also has a minimum opening balance of $10,000, a minimum monthly fee of $10 even if you don’t trade at all, and customer service that does not cater to casual investors.

I am not an active trader, but I still like having real-time quotes, a nice user interface, and friendly service when I need it. Thankfully, Barron’s also ranked the brokers for the rest of us:

Top 5 Brokers for Novice Investors

  1. TD Ameritrade. Performed well in customer service & education, research tools, and mobile offerings. Free real-time quotes from NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ Level 1 and 2. When placing an order, the trigger price is automatically set at the midpoint between bid and ask.
  2. Fidelity
  3. E-Trade
  4. Charles Schwab
  5. Capital One 360 Sharebuilder

Top 5 Brokers for Long-Term Investing

  1. TD Ameritrade
  2. Fidelity
  3. Charles Schwab
  4. Merrill Edge
  5. E-Trade (down 1)

Top 5 Brokers for In-Person Service

  1. Scottrade. Scottrade has over 500 physical branches across US, so that when you call you reach a human in that local branch. Free in-person educational seminars are offered as well.
  2. Merrill Edge
  3. Charles Schwab
  4. Fidelity
  5. TD Ameritrade

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$10,000 P2P LendingClub / Prosper Loan Portfolio Update – March 2013

Here’s the 3rd and last piece of the monthly updates for my Beat the Market Experiment, a set of three real money portfolios started on November 1st, 2012. See also my $10,000 Benchmark and $10,000 Speculative portfolio updates for March 2013.

For this one, I started with $10,000 split evenly between Prosper Lending and Lending Club, and went to work lending other people money and earning interest with an 8% target net return.

$5,000 LendingClub Loan Portfolio. Below is a screenshot of my LendingClub account as of 3/1/13. I’ve had loans at LC before, but sold them all on the secondary market and started fresh for this tracking experiment. Here are screenshots of my total balance and my portfolio details. I would say my overall risk level is moderate-conservative with mostly A and B rated loans (top two grades).


(click to enlarge)

The portfolio is now 4 months old, with 206 currently active loans, 7 loans that were paid off early, and one is in funding. Two of the active loans are currently between 16-30 days late. The current weighted average interest rate is 12.36%, which means I can lose 4.36% to defaults and still net an 8% return.

I pick loans using a preset filter based on my LendingClub filters post as well as my Prosper filter research noted below. I never spend any time reading individual loan descriptions, as I’m trying to keep this mostly passive and scalable. The filters are saved online and it takes just a minute to reinvest interest, although I still tend to forget until I do these updates. In additional to outstanding loan principal, the account also has $249 in idle cash, $25 in funding limbo, and $38 in accrued interest.

LendingClub.com account value: $5,160 (includes principal + accrued interest, after fees)

$5,000 Prosper.com Loan Portfolio. Below are screenshots of my Prosper account page as of 3/1/13.
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$10,000 Beat-the-Benchmark Speculative Portfolio Update – March 2013

Here’s the 2nd piece of the monthly updates for my Beat the Market Experiment, a set of three portfolios started on November 1st, 2012. Since this update is rather boring, let me provide an update on the overall experiment:

  1. $10,000 Passive Benchmark Portfolio that would serve as both a performance benchmark and an real-world, low-cost portfolio that would be easy to replicate and maintain for DIY investors.
  2. $10,000 Beat-the-Benchmark Speculative Portfolio that would simply represent the attempts of an “average guy” who is not a financial professional and gets his news from mainstream sources to get the best overall returns possible.
  3. $10,000 Consumer Loan Speculative Portfolio – Split evenly between LendingClub and Prosper, this portfolio is designed to test out the alternative investment of peer-to-peer loans. The goal is again to beat the benchmark by setting a target return of 8-10% net of defaults.

$10,000 Beat-the-Benchmark Speculative Portfolio as of March 2, 2013. Many people speculate with their money, buying and selling stocks now and then, but they rarely track their performance even though they may brag about their winners. Honest tracking is the primary reason for this “no-rules, just make money” account. I am using a TradeKing account for this portfolio as I’ve had an account with them for a while and am comfortable with their low-cost $4.95 trade structure, free tax-management gain/loss software, and free dividend reinvestment. Here is a screenshot taken from my TradeKing home page 3/2/13 mid-day:

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$10,000 Benchmark Portfolio Update – March 2013

Time again for a Beat the Market Experiment monthly update, for the first of three portfolios started on November 1st, 2012:

  1. $10,000 Passive Benchmark Portfolio that would serve as both a performance benchmark and an real-world, low-cost portfolio that would be easy to replicate and maintain for DIY investors.
  2. $10,000 Beat-the-Benchmark Speculative Portfolio that would simply represent the attempts of an “average guy” who is not a financial professional and gets his news from mainstream sources to get the best overall returns possible.
  3. $10,000 P2P Consumer Lending Speculative Portfolio – Split evenly between LendingClub and Prosper, this portfolio is designed to test out the alternative investment of person-to-person loans. The goal is again to beat the benchmark by setting a target return of 8-10% net of defaults.

$10,000 Benchmark Portfolio as of March 2, 2013. My account is held at TD Ameritrade due to their 100 commission-free ETF program that includes free trades on the best low-cost, index ETFs from Vanguard and iShares. I funded it with $10,000 and bought all the ETFs required to be fully invested on 11/1/12. All trades were commission-free.

Here’s a screenshot from my account showing exact holdings and their market value on 3/2/13 mid-day:


(click to enlarge)

Here’s the asset allocation pie chart, tracked with a simple Google Docs spreadsheet:

No new trades over the past month as the allocations are still close to targets. Still no dividends or money market interest. Here is the target asset allocation:

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Investment Returns By Asset Class – March 2013 Update

Here is my monthly update of the trailing total returns for the major asset classes that I find useful. Passive ETFs are used to represent major asset classes, as they represent actual investments that folks can buy and sell. Return data was taken after market close at the end of February 2013.

Asset Class
Representative ETF
Benchmark Index
1-Mo 1-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Broad US Stock Market
Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI)
MSCI US Broad Market Index
1.29% 13.89% 5.62% 9.12%
Broad International Stock Market
Vanguard Total International Stock (VXUS)
MSCI All Country World ex USA Investable Market Index
-1.20% 6.98% -0.93% 10.33%
Emerging Markets
Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
FTSE Emerging Index
-1.73% 0.14% 0.34% 16.60%
REIT (Real Estate)
Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)
MSCI US REIT Index
1.23% 17.36% 8.00% 12.34%
Broad US Bond Market
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)
Barclays U.S. Aggregate Float Adj. Bond Index
0.51% 3.09% 5.41% 5.46%
US Treasury Bonds – Short-Term
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY)
Barclays U.S. 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Index
0.07% 0.43% 1.65% 2.58%
US Treasury Bonds – Long-Term
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
Barclays U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index
1.29% 3.24% 8.62% 7.17%
TIPS / Inflation-Linked Bonds
iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP)
Barclays U.S. TIPS Index
0.01% 4.06% 5.66% 5.9%
(est.)
Gold
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Price of Gold Bullion
-4.61% -10.62% 9.90% 15.9%
(est.)

For an easy visual comparison, here is a chart of the 1-year trailing returns:

March 2013 Trailing 1-year Returns

I like collecting this information because it allows me to keep an eye on the market while still keeping the long-term returns in perspective. Often, the asset classes with the best long-term returns have had recent poor performance. The 1-year chart helps me decide where to invest new funds and also for rebalancing. Note that I do not necessarily invest in all the listed asset classes, see my personal portfolio for details.

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iShares Core ETF List: Lower-Cost Index ETFs for Buy-and-Hold Investors

The index fund fee wars continue… You may or may not know that Blackrock’s iShares is the largest ETF provider in the world, with over 250 US-listed ETFs and the largest asset base by a good margin. iShares ETFs tend to have big volume and are the favorites of Wall Street traders and also large money managers. But Vanguard is catching up, and iShares responded by making a move in October 2012 to appeal to long-term, buy-and-hold investors who want low-cost, broad, index ETFs. (I’m sure they also saw how people who wanted Emerging Markets exposure quickly switched from EEM to VWO due to the big fee difference.) See the official iShares press release for more details.

Below are the 10 ETFs that comprise the new iShares Core Series ETFs (4 new, 6 modified existing), along with their expense ratio, ticker symbol, and benchmark index. They are broken down into 4 US equity ETFs, 3 International equity ETFs, and 3 US bond ETFs.

Fund name (Ticker) Expense ratio Benchark
iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT, previously ISI) 0.07% S&P Composite 1500
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) 0.07% S&P 500
iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF (IJH) 0.15% S&P MidCap 400
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) 0.16% S&P SmallCap 600
iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF (IXUS) 0.16% MSCI ACWI ex USA IMI
iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) 0.18% MSCI Emerging Markets IMI
iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA) 0.14% MSCI EAFE IMI
iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF (AGG) 0.08% Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index
iShares Core Long-Term U.S. Bond ETF (ILTB, previously GLJ) 0.12% Barclays U.S. Long Government/Credit Bond
Index
iShares Core Short-Term U.S. Bond ETF (ISTB) 0.12% Barclays U.S. 1-5 Year Government/Credit Bond Index

The new expense ratios are very competitive with the corresponding Vanguard ETFs, usually within a few basis points. It would have been nice if they just lowered the fees on EEM instead of starting a whole new ETF IEMG, but remember that profit motive. The ETFs are gaining reasonable assets, so it appears to be a successful move so far.

For the individual investor, it will be interesting if iShares strikes a deal with a major brokerage firm to offer commission-free trades on these ETFs. Update: These Core ETFs are now part of Fidelity’s commission-free iShares ETF list .

Fidelity Freedom Funds Review: Avoid High Cost Target Date Retirement Funds

Updated and revised. Fidelity Investments does a lot of things well, but their Fidelity Freedom series of target-date retirement funds is not one of them. I’ve been warning people about these funds since 2006, although recently they’ve been getting some heat due to their overall underperformance. Assets in the Freedom funds have been dropping, while the assets in Vanguard’s Target Retirement funds have been increasing quickly. Here’s why the underperformance is not about the glide path, but about the structure and fees.

This post is a bit long, so here’s a roadmap of what I’m going to try and show:

(1) The goal of owning actively-managed mutual funds is to beat their passive benchmark. Pick the winners and not the losers. The problem is that Fidelity Freedom funds hold so many different funds with overlapping holdings, that in the end they basically own everything. It’s exceedingly difficult for them to accomplish such outperformance. Thus, over time their performance before fees is likely to simply match that of their benchmark.

(2) Due to their higher expenses, this means that their net performance after fees (what investors actually get) will be very likely to underperform the their benchmark. Over long periods of time, the amount of underperformance will closely match the amount of management fees charged.

(3) This expected underperformance is confirmed by looking at their historical performance over the past 3, 5, and 10 years.

(4) Instead, investors should look for low-cost index funds to replicate the benchmark give the best chance of higher performance. Options are explored.

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Fidelity Spartan Index Mutual Fund Fee Reductions, Lower Minimum Investments

Fidelity Investments made some cost-cutting moves recently to try and keep their index fund products competitive (full press release). This comes at the same time that their actively-managed equity funds are seeing large amount of withdrawals, per WSJ:

Investors pulled a net $35.3 billion from equity funds at the country’s second-largest mutual-fund company in 2012, according to Fidelity’s annual report released Friday. Of that total, the Boston-based company’s actively-managed stock funds – an essential component of its business – saw outflows of $24.4 billion during the year. That’s despite the strong performance of the funds, which collectively beat 74% of their peers last year, compared with 53% in 2011, according to Fidelity.

(Also noteworthy: Fidelity filed with the SEC in December 2011 to roll out their own line-up of index-tracking stock and bond ETFs, although I haven’t heard much since. In December 2012, Fidelity filed to start actively-managed ETFs as well.)

Reduced investment minimums. As of December 2012, Fidelity reduced the investment minimums on 22 equity and bond funds, including the 14 Spartan index funds listed below. The Investor Class investment minimum was lowered from $10,000 to $2,500, while the Fidelity Advantage® Class was lowered from $100,000 to $10,000.

Spartan 500 Index Fund
Spartan Extended Market Index Fund
Spartan International Index Fund
Spartan Total Market Index Fund
Spartan Emerging Markets Index Fund
Spartan Global ex U.S. Index Fund
Spartan Mid Cap Index Fund
Spartan Real Estate Index Fund
Spartan Small Cap Index Fund
Spartan Inflation Protected Index Fund
Spartan Intermediate Treasury Index Fund
Spartan Long-Term Treasury Index Fund
Spartan Short-Term Treasury Index Fund
Spartan U.S. Bond Index Fund

This is a pretty big move to bring in more retail investors, becoming more in line with Vanguard’s Investor and Admiral Class shares. As with Vanguard, share class conversions should occur automatically based on your investment amount, and the conversion is a tax-free event.

Lower expense ratios. As of January 2013, Fidelity also cut the overall expense ratios for certain share classes of 8 Spartan index funds. Below is a list of the affected funds and their new expense ratios for Investor/Advantage classes as of 1/1/13.

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Recent Vanguard Index Fund Benchmark Changes = Lower Costs

Recently, Vanguard has made some big moves in the index fund space. Well, they were big for people in the business, but for individual investors it basically boiled down to some simple good news: even lower costs, which happily means larger numbers on my monthly statements.

In October 2012, Vanguard announced that they would be changing the benchmarks on 22 of their index funds from MSCI indices to either FTSE (international) or CRSP (domestic) indices. Essentially, companies like S&P (S&P 500) and MSCI are the “brand names” of the indexing world. However, creating an investable market-cap weighted index has basically become a commodity, so why not go “generic” where available? FTSE is part of a publicly traded company, but CRSP is short for University of Chicago’s Center for Research in Security Prices which is run as a non-profit.

Basically, MSCI wanted too much in licensing fees, so Vanguard dropped them. Remember that with Vanguard’s client-owned structure, the savings goes to the investor and not to shareholders or private owners. This move should result in lower expense ratios in the affected funds as well as the popular Target Retirement 20XX and LifeStrategy funds. Vanguard is taking the transition slowly over several months in order to minimize any capital gains, front-running, or market impact costs. Here is a list of all the affected funds and the new benchmarks. Notable changes include:

  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX, VTSAX, VTI) will now track the CRSP US Total Market Index. It shouldn’t change significantly, but the new CRSP index does include more micro-cap stock exposure.
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index (VGTSX, VTIAX, VXUS) will now track the FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index. Here is another nice overview on the Rick Ferri Forbes blog, but basically there will only be slight changes.
  • Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (VEIEX, VEMAX, VWO) will now track the FTSE Emerging Index. The big change here is that FTSE has South Korea as a Developed market, whereas MSCI still has South Korea as a Emerging market. South Korean stocks were 15% of the MSCI-based ETF, so the new ETF should look a little different. This was going to happen sooner or later, anyway.

Bottom line: Vanguard disrupted the industry again, and others may have to follow eventually. Vanguard already has the asset size and client-owned structure that gives them the ability to maintain the lowest costs in the industry. Other providers may match or even beat their expense ratios, but they are doing it as a loss-leader and hoping to make it up elsewhere. Like milk or orange juice at the grocery store, this means whatever is on sale today may go up in price next week (or year, or decade). The difference is that when it comes to long-term investing, over time you will (hopefully) accumulate significant capital gains and selling them prematurely will results in a tax hit. I don’t want to have to switch investments later on in the game.