Stable Value Funds Safe In Rising Rate Environment?

If you have a 401(k) or other tax-sheltered retirement plan, one of the investment options may be a stable value (SV) fund. In today’s low interest rate environment, stable value funds have been popular as they offer the stable price of a money market fund but with a higher yield. This is due to the fact that they are basically intermediate-term bond funds wrapped in an insurance contract that guarantees it maintains a “stable value”. This means the book value that you see can differ from the actual market value.

In my case, I invest some money in them because they offer a 3% yield on previous contributions (current contributions earn 1.25% on which I passed). Compare that with a money market fund earning 0.01%, or the Vanguard Intermediate Bond fund with a 6.4 year duration and only a 1.78% yield.

However, if interest rates were to rise quickly, this would lower the market value of those bonds (as interest rates go up, bond values go down) at the same time that there may be a rush of redemptions. Would the fund be able to cash people out at the higher book value as promised? A recent Vanguard research paper ran some scenarios based on historical periods of rising interest rates (1986-1990 and 2004-2008). They used Vanguard’s pooled fund, the Vanguard Retirement Savings Trust, with an average duration of underlying investments of ~2.6 years. Read the paper for details, but the overall conclusion was that the stable value funds would survive such scenarios:

Although stable value funds in general have performed well through past market cycles and crises, in the current environment of low interest rates both stable value investors and contract providers have been concerned about the effect rising interest rates would have on the funds and the ability of the funds to continue to perform well when further stressed by cash outflows.

[…] …in our simulations, the funds’ MV/BV ratios demonstrated resiliency, and crediting rates fluctuated within a band far narrower than that of market yields, even in extraordinary scenarios.

While the paper’s findings provide some reassurance, I’m reminded that lots of people “stress tested” mortgage-backed securities in 2007 as well. Based on the Vanguard analysis, here are some additional cautionary steps to take for potential investors in stable value funds:

  1. Remember the basics of stable value funds. SV funds are intermediate bonds wrapped in an insurance guarantee, so if the insurance fails then you’re just left with bonds. This isn’t the end of the world, but make sure you’re okay with that. See previous post on stable value funds risks and rewards for real-life examples.
  2. Understand your specific withdrawal restrictions. There are usually some form of liquidity restriction attached, but they can vary greatly. In some cases, you have to give a full 12- to 24-month notice to withdraw at book value (guaranteed principal). In my plan, I am not allowed to transfer into any other fixed income (bond) funds at all. I can transfer at any time into a stock fund, but then I have to wait 90 days until I can transfer again to another bond fund. This Reuters article reports that some providers have been cutting back on guarantees.
  3. Be aware of scenarios where your stable value fund will be under stress. Usually, this results from rapidly rising interest rates. For example, if the yield on money market funds rise, people will prefer those to stable value funds. Also, the market value of the underlying bonds will fluctuate, even though only the book value is reported on your statements. If the market-to-book ratio on your SV fund drops below 98% (see updated prospectus), people may panic and start to withdraw.

Best Broker for Coverdell ESA / Education IRA

As a follow-up to my Coverdell ESA vs. 529 Plan comparison, I was looking for the best discount brokerage to open up a Coverdell Education Savings Account. Although you could also open an ESA at a bank for slow but steady growth, many people prefer to invest at a brokerage firm where they can invest in stocks and bonds.

Coverdell ESA information can be hard to find for many brokers. Sometimes the only way I could tell if they offered ESAs was to start an application and look to see if it was an option. Many of them consider the Coverdell ESA as an IRA and list it under “Educational IRA” alongside Traditional, Roth, and SEP IRAs. Therefore, when looking at the fee schedules you should assume that an IRA annual fee or IRA maintenance fee will apply to your Coverdell unless otherwise listed. Other things to look for:

  • Annual maintenance fees.
  • Minimum opening amount or minimum contribution size requirements.
  • Investment options – mutual funds, ETFs, individual bonds, etc.
  • Commission costs.

Two of the biggest mutual fund companies surprisingly do not offer Coverdell ESAs: Fidelity and Vanguard. (Vanguard no longer opens new ESAs, but still services old accounts.) My guess is that the low contribution limits and thus low balances don’t offer them much opportunity for profit, especially with all the additional paperwork involved for tracking contributions and withdrawals. Many mutual funds also have minimum initial investments higher than the $2,000 annual limit.

Top Pick

TD Ameritrade. The main reason why I picked TDA is that it provides the best available access to low-cost index ETFs due to their list of 100 commission-free ETFs which include the most popular ETFs from Vanguard, iShares, SPDR, and Powershares. This means you can build a very diversified portfolio with both no commission costs and using best-of-breed ETFs with high trading volumes. TDA also has no account maintenance fees and no minimum contribution requirements. $9.99 equity trades otherwise.

Other Worthy Options
The following brokers also offer Coverdell ESAs and have been ranked in various “top broker” lists from SmartMoney, Barron’s, and Consumer Reports. Many people may simply choose to open an account where their other accounts already reside. In no particular order:

  • Scottrade. $7 equity trades. Must open with $500. No account maintenance fees.
  • E-Trade. $9.95 equity trades. Must open with $1,000. No account maintenance fees.
  • Schwab. $8.95 equity trades. Schwab offers own line of low-cost index ETFs with no commission, albeit with limited volume. Must open with $1,000 or sign up for automatic monthly transfer of $100 or more. No account maintenance fees.
  • TradeKing. $4.95 equity trades. No minimum to open, no account maintenance fees.
  • Capital One 360 Sharebuilder. $4 scheduled window trades (not real-time). Offers dollar-based trades. No minimum to open, no account maintenance fees.

Coverdell ESA vs. 529 Plan Comparison Chart

I’ve been doing some research into college savings plans, and here is a side-by-side comparison of the Coverdell Education Savings Account (ESA) and the 529 College Savings Plan. The Coverdell used to be known as an “Education IRA” and still functions similar to a Roth IRA for qualified educational expenses. However, 529 plans also offer tax-free growth and seem to be much more popular these days. Each plan has its own set of strengths and weaknesses.

Coverdell ESA 529 Account
Federal Tax Advantages Earnings grow tax-deferred and withdrawals are federal income tax-free when used for qualified education expenses.
(tie)
Earnings grow tax-deferred and withdrawals are federal income tax-free when used for qualified education expenses.
(tie)
State-Tax Deduction for Contributions No. Possible, state-specific.
winner
Qualified Expenses Qualified elementary, secondary, and college education expenses.
winner
Qualified college expenses only
Contribution Limits $2,000 annually for 2012. After that, it reverts to $500 annually unless extended again by Congress. Technically, the limit is the “anticipated cost of a beneficiary’s qualified education expenses”. This results in state-specific total limits of ~$200,000 or more.
winner
Income Limitations Contributions are phased out for married filing jointly with MAGI $190,000 to $220,000; single filers MAGI $95,000-$110,000. (2012) None.
winner
Investment Flexibility Open at broker of your choice and invest in any bank deposit, mutual fund, or individual stocks and bonds. Buy/sell as you like.
winner
Limited to the selection provided by each state-specific plan. Investment changes only allowed twice a year.
Beneficiary Limitations Can change beneficiary. Beneficiary must be under 18 during contribution phase, and the funds must be withdrawn by age 30. Can change beneficiary. No age restrictions.
winner
Financial Aid Treatment A parent-owned Coverdell ESA is reported as a parent asset on FAFSA. If owned by grandparent, it is not included in FAFSA.
(tie)
A parent-owned 529 Plan is reported as a parent asset on the FAFSA. If owned by grandparent, it is not included in FAFSA.
(tie)

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My Money Blog Portfolio Update – July 2012

Here’s a mid-year update of our investment portfolio, including employer 401(k) plans, self-employed retirement plans, Traditional and Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage holdings. Cash reserves (emergency fund), college savings accounts, and day-to-day cash balances are excluded.

Asset Allocation & Holdings

Here is my current actual asset allocation:

The overall target asset allocation remains the same, based on my own preferences and research:
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S&P Persistence Scorecard: Don’t Pick Mutual Funds Based on Past Performance

It is very tempting to invest in an actively-managed mutual fund that has above-average returns. Why would you invest in the ones with below-average returns? However, there’s something behind the whole “past performance does not guarantee future results” fine print. While there will always be funds that outperform, it is exceedingly difficult to pick them out in advance.
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Lending Club vs. Prosper Experiment: Which Has The Highest Returns?

I’ve decided to invest $10,000 in Prosper and Lending Club to compare their performance as an investment. Putting $5,000 in each will allow me to invest in 200 loans at $25 a piece, so that each loan will only be 0.5% of each respective portfolio. The money has already been deposited:

Prosper Screenshot:

Lending Club Screenshot:

Prosper advertises returns of seasoned returns of 10.08%. Lending Club advertises rates of 5.81% to 9.43% depending on credit grade, but always with prime borrowers. I want to compare both absolute performance and the investing experience (ease of use, customer service, liquidity, etc.). However, I’m not sure exactly how I should run the experiment…

Background
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New 401k Fee Disclosure Requirement Summary

New 401(k) plan fee disclosure requirements from the US Department of Labor are coming soon. This includes defined benefit, 401(k), 403(b), profit sharing, and other retirement plans. I was getting confused myself, so I wanted to summarize some of the basic deadlines. First, there are three main parties involved:

  1. Plan service providers. For example Vanguard, Fidelity, or numerous smaller local providers.
  2. Retirement plan fiduciaries. Basically, your employer.
  3. Plan participant. The employee.

First, there is a new requirement for fee disclosure by service providers to the fiduciaries (i.e. from Fidelity to the employer). These regulations become effective on July 1, 2012. The idea is to get fiduciaries to understand the services received from providers and to determine the reasonableness of the costs incurred. You’d think that your employer would already demand to know what they’ve been paying for all these years. Why don’t they? All too often, you, the employee are the one paying for it out of your investment balances and earnings!

Which brings up the next stage, the fee disclosure requirement from plan fiduciaries to participants (i.e. from employer to employee), which becomes effective August 30, 2012. Now, your employer is legally required to tell you what fees you’re paying, including both investment management fees and administrative fees for things like record keeping, accounting, and legal services. However, this is likely be wrapped up into just an overall percentage for each investment option, or worded as dollars charged per $1,000 invested.

The basic problem remains. Employers choose 401k plans with high fees often because they it doesn’t affect their bottom line – most are smaller companies with plans that shift the cost burden onto the employees. However, by simply shining a brighter light on these fees and allowing easy comparison between employer plans, it lets employees have more information to affect change. Indeed, it appears this forced transparency is working already, as the WSJ reports:

Employers “have been polishing up their plans in anticipation of fee disclosure, making sure the fees are appropriate,” says David Wray, president of the Plan Sponsor Council of America. He says nearly two-thirds of 401(k) plans changed their investment lineup last year, and 57% did so the year before, compared with a “normal number” of about 10%.

More reading: Department of Labor, NY Times, Employee Benefits Law Report

Scottrade Review: Trading Experience & Tips (Updated 2012)

I’ve had an account with Scottrade for several years now, and here is an updated, in-depth review for 2012 (last one I did was in 2006!). I will focus on all the little things that make brokers different from each other, from completing your taxes to buying a stock on a moment’s notice. This review will be from the point of view of a casual private investor who does not trade daily but does mostly buy-and-hold ETF investing and also trades some individual stocks with a small portion of his portfolio (less than 5% of overall portfolio).

Unique Characteristics

  • 505 physical branches nationwide. No other discount broker has nearly the same footprint. If you like the feeling of knowing there is a physical branch with friendly humans to interact with nearby, this is the broker for you.
  • Fiercely privately-owned. The current CEO, Rodger Riney, is the same person that founded the company in 1980. He has rebuffed repeated offers to be sold to public corporations like E-Trade or Ameritrade. I kind of like this independence and unwillingness to cash-out. It helps them not have to worry about profits all the time. For example, even during both recent stock market busts, no one has ever been laid off, and no office has ever been closed. Their branch brokers don’t offer advice to customers and do not work on commission.

Commissions and Fees

  • Stock commissions are $7 a trade. No maintenance fees, no minimum balance fees, no inactivity fees. $500 minimum to open the account. Options trades are $7 + $1.25 per contract.
  • Electronic statements and trade confirmations are free, but paper ones are not. Mailed statements are $2 each, mailed trade confirmations are $1 each. It’s easy to download the statements as PDFs and print if necessary.
  • No account closing or transfer-out fee. This is rare, as nearly all the other places charge you $50+ to move your positions away to another broker.
  • No free dividend reinvestment. There is no free dividend re-investment plan (DRIP) at Scottrade. What I do is wait until enough dividends accumulate and then reinvest them along with new money, because I don’t like dealing with many small tax lots with partial shares.

[Read more…]

Copies of Every Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letter (1965-2014)

I was offered a review copy of a book called Gems from Warren Buffett which is basically selected snippets from Warren Buffett’s Letter to Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. I read it and it was entertaining, but there was no real original material other than the contribution of organizing the quoted portions into themes like “Managing With Style” or “Market Forces”. It was also short; the book was small with large print and still only ran a little more than 100 pages.

I suppose if the author was another notable investor the curation might be useful, but that wasn’t the case. I’m actually a little surprised that even Buffett granted permission for this book to be published, although he did stipulate a condition that 20% of print and eBook sales (not just profits!) will be donated to a charity that he supports (Glide.org).

In any case, I can’t say that I recommend buying the book. Instead, if you’re really serious about learning insights into Warren Buffett’s way of investing and business management, do what other serious investors do and read the full, unabridged letters. Buffett is known for spending a good deal of time carefully writing the letters to be both informative and understandable.

Updated. Shareholder letters from 1977 to 2014 are available free to all on the Berkshire Hathaway website. You can also now purchase all of the Shareholder letters from 1965 to 2013 for only $2.99 in Amazon Kindle format (~$22 paperback). That is a very reasonable price to have them all stored in electronic format; you used to be able to find them floating around on document sharing sites, but it looks like they have reclaimed copyright protection on them.

Why Asset Allocation Doesn’t Matter Very Much

A helpful reader sent me a WSJ article with the provocative theme that all this investment advice about asset allocation doesn’t matter for most people. Why?

For the vast majority of savers, improved investment returns won’t materially extend how long retirement money lasts. That’s, in large part, because few investors have enough money in their retirement account to tilt the balance.

Far more important, says the paper from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, are three variables that don’t require a brokerage account: how long you work, controlling spending and tapping the value of your home.

Briefly, the study found that 47% of households would fall short of their income needs in retirement at age 67, when Social Security kicks in for those born after 1960. However, even if investors were able to theoretically earn a guaranteed 6.5% above inflation annually in a riskless investment, 44% would still be short.

How little are people saving? The WSJ article notes that having $500,000 in financial assets by retirement age would put in you in the top 10% of savers. The CRR working paper itself mentions that “the typical 401(k)/IRA balance of households approaching retirement is less than $100,000” but I didn’t see a source.

The Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) found that in 2010 the average IRA individual balance (all accounts from the same person combined) was $91,864, while the median balance was $25,296. EBRI also found that at year-end 2010, the average 401(k) account balance was $60,329 and the median account balance was $17,686. But that’s for all folks, not just people of retirement age.

This shouldn’t be too surprising. Your savings rate is the most important factor in determining if you can retire comfortably. Working longer is the same as saving more and spending less (for a while). Getting used to spending less now would aallows you to need less in retirement. Doing a reverse mortgage is just another word for cashing in your savings, isn’t it?

Why asset allocation is still important. The paper concludes that financial advisors should focus more on savings rates and less about the complex ETF portfolio they just designed for you. Probably true. However, asset allocation has always been something that we did to help our situation without actually doing the hard work of having to save more. Imagine a pill that we could take to lose weight, while not actually eating less or exercising more.

I suppose we should view designing an asset allocation more as a potential “boost” to our nest egg than the driving force, and realize that earning an extra 1% or 2% a year won’t help if you’re just compounding a small chunk of your income. How much is enough? Studies have found that a savings rate of 16.62% would have worked out well historically.

The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks (Book Review)

Updated. I bought the original version with my own money, but then got offered a review copy of the newly released The Most Important Thing Illuminated which contains the same material but with additional commentary from respected investors Christopher Davis (David Funds), Joel Greenblatt (Gotham Capital), Paul Johnson (Nicusa Capital), and Seth Klarman (Baupost Group) as well as an extra chapter from Howard Marks. Most serious investors will recognize these names. The original is great, but if you’re willing to spend a bit more money (eBook is $9.99), this new version does have a little more meat to it. I’ve updated this review to include the new chapter.

If you wrote a book about investing and wanted some big-name endorsements, you couldn’t do much better than this – The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor by Howard Marks has recommendations from Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, Jack Bogle, Joel Greenblatt, and Seth Klarman.

Howard Marks is already famous around many investment circles for his Client Memos as the chairman and cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management, although not as well-known as Buffett’s shareholder letters. This book is basically a distillation of those memos into book form. Here are my personal notes.

Efficient Markets
Marks is an active investor, and this book is about successfully generate excess turns (alpha). Some people seem to think that “efficient markets” is black and white – either you believe in the Easter Bunny or you don’t. Market prices are completely perfect or investing is purely skill. This book helps you view market efficiency as a continuum. Beating the market by trading large-cap common stocks which are following by thousands of professionals is exceedingly hard. Oaktree Capital chooses to focus on what he perceives as less efficient markets – things like convertible securities and high-yield debt from distressed companies (“junk bonds”).

Developing your own investment philosophy
I enjoyed this quote:

Where does an investment philosophy come from? The one thing I’m sure of is that no one arrives on the doorstep of an investment career with his or her philosophy fully formed. A philosophy has to be the sum of many ideas accumulated over a long period of time from a variety of sources. One cannot develop an effective philosophy without having been exposed to life’s lessons

Quality vs. Price
The title of the book is a bit misleading, as there is no single “most important thing”. Basically each chapter is an expansion of one or more of his memos and it titled “The Most Important Thing is… XXX”. However, an overarching theme of the book is about risk control. I’ve already written about higher risk vs. higher investment return.

A related idea is that people tend to think of investments only in terms of quality. Strong companies vs. struggling companies. Highly-rated bonds vs. Lower-rated bonds. Strong developed countries vs. Weaker emerging countries. But what’s important is the price. A high-quality company can be a high-risk or low-risk investment, depending on what price you pay for it. A junk bond can be a high-risk or low-risk investment, depending on what price you pay for it.

Cycles
Marks strongly believes in the recurrence of cycles. One side of the pendulum occurs when people seems think that there are minimal risks, either because of recent history or some new invention that eliminates risk (CDOs?). Often, the only worry remaining is that we’ll miss out on the opportunity for great returns. The other side of the pendulum is when uncertainty is everywhere. Here, people say things like “I’m staying out of the market until the dust settles.” This reminded me of a chart I pulled out a lot during the housing bubble:

If you’re going to pick a time to invest, it’s better when people are scared, because at least they are properly considering all the potential risks. It should be scary and uncomfortable. He reminds you, as Charlie Munger says, “It’s not supposed to be easy.” If you wait until the dust has settled, there won’t be great prices anymore.

Illuminated-only Bonus Chapter: Reasonable Expectations
This is good reminder about having a clear goal as to what you want to achieve with your portfolio, but also to keep that goal within reason:

The key questions are what your return goal is, how much risk you can tolerate, and how much liquidity you’re likely to require in the interim.

Extraordinary skill is rare. When someone else promises returns “too good to be true”, the next question to ask is “why me?” If they found a can’t miss investment opportunity, why are they sharing this with you? If some talking head on TV makes a bold prediction, why aren’t they busy betting their net worth on the outcome? With today’s complex derivatives and betting markets, they should be rich and sunning themselves on a yacht instead.

Recap
Even though I am primarily a low-cost, buy, hold, & rebalance type of investor, I felt this book still provided me with new information for my own evolving investing philosophy. Creating alpha is not easy, and most people who try to do so consistently fail, so you should be very careful and realistic when assessing your own skills. I’ll be sure to read his future memos. Thankfully, they can be found at the Oaktree Capital website, free and available to all.

Bogle on Earning Dividend Income From Stocks

I was following an interesting discussion about living off of dividend income from stocks over at the Bogleheads forum, and member Beagler posted a link to a excerpt on income investing from the book Bogle on Mutual Funds.

You may know that John Bogle is the founder of Vanguard, now one of the largest fund organizations in the world and a pioneer in low-cost index funds. But what I really like about his books is his focus on common sense as the foundation for his advice. An example of this is his Gotrocks parable [pdf] adapted from Buffett. But back to this excerpt. He first points out how stock dividends have been a good way to create an income stream over the long run that grows faster than inflation.

Of course, by investing in common stocks you assume the risk that dividends will decline during periods of recession or depression […] What is truly remarkable is that the record of dividend payments by U.S. corporations heavily favors rising dividends over declining dividends, almost irrespective of prevailing business conditions.

Here’s a chart of the historical S&P 500 annual dividend, inflation-adjusted. (Note this is absolute dividend, not dividend yield percentage.)


Image credit to Multpl.com, data from S&P and Shiller

Now, the problem is that you can also pay too much for dividends. He shares an example of how if you were comparing the dividend income from a diversified stock portfolio yielding 3% and growing at 6% annually or a long-term bond yielding 7% each year, it would take 26 years for the dividend income to total the bond income payments.

Unfortunately, defining what constitutes too high a price for dividends is a fallible exercise, one that must take into account not only the average historical valuations for stocks but the current valuations for other investment alternatives as well. History suggests that stocks are relatively expensive when the price paid for $1 of dividends is above $30 (i.e., a yield of 3.3%) and relatively cheap when the price paid is less than $20 (a yield of 5%). However, stocks may well be attractive at a yield of, say, 3.5% if there are compelling reasons to assume that their dividends will increase rapidly or if yields on other classes of financial assets are relatively unattractive.

In the example shown in Figure 2-5, buying a portfolio of stocks at a 3% yield rather than a bond at a 7% yield might not be a sensible investment, especially considering the incremental risk incurred in holding stocks. When stocks yield 4.5% and bonds yield 6%, that may be quite another story.

What would Bogle say right now, when the S&P 500 yield is ~2% and 30-year Treasury bonds are ~3%? The relative difference between the stock yield and the bond yield is less than 1%. I would argue that his last sentence would suggest stocks are actually preferred over other classes at this point.

Now, I’m not turning in a stock bull, and I still have about 70% stocks and 30% bonds in my portfolio, but this line of thinking makes me happier with my 70% in stocks. I’ve also been looking more at living off of dividend income in “early retirement”.