SmartMoney Magazine Top Online Broker Rankings 2012

SmartMoney magazine has released the results of their Annual Broker Survey in its June 2012 issue. Check out the attached article for additional commentary and insight into rankings and methodology. You’ll find my own commentary on their findings below.

SmartMoney 2012 Top 10 Overall

  1. Fidelity
  2. Scottrade
  3. TD Ameritrade
  4. E-Trade
  5. Schwab
  6. TradeKing
  7. Zecco
  8. Merrill Edge
  9. Capital One 360 Sharebuilder
  10. WellsTrade

Best in Commission & Fees Category (5 stars)

Scottrade doesn’t have a rock-bottem per-trade commission at $7 a trade, but it’s lower than average and they still win overall due to lower fees elsewhere – such as annual fees, inactivity fees, fees to use a phone, or close out an account.

  1. Scottrade
  2. Capital One 360 Sharebuilder

Best in Customer Service Category (4 stars+)

One important factor here was speed of reply in addition to accuracy, and per the article all of the brokers surveyed now offer Live Chat online except for WellsTrade. I think TradeKing was the first to offer this feature?

  1. TradeKing ($50 opening bonus link)
  2. Scottrade
  3. E-Trade
  4. Zecco

Trends

  • Prices are still dropping, although more slowly. SmartMoney reports that in 1994 the average commission price surveyed was $28. Last year, $8.27. This year, only $7.96. Note that every single one of their top 10 brokers have per-trade stock commissions of under $10. I suppose anything higher would just seem greedy now.
  • Banking. More firms are adding banking features like debit cards and billpay to make it more likely that you’ll keep all your money there, joining firms like Merrill Lynch (Bank of America) and WellsTrade (Wells Fargo) which are already closely aligned and owned by big banks.
  • Smartphone and iPad apps. These are indeed cool, but the brokers really love them because they increase your trade activity.

Omissions

SmartMoney mentions the the Merrill Edge BofA deal, where you can get 30 free trades a month if you hold a combined $25,000 as cash in your *deposit* accounts only at Bank of America. However, they don’t mention the WellsTrade deal which offers 100 free trades a year if you hold a combined $25k across acounts including your brokerage balance, but instead requires a PMA checking account that you have to keep active with “in-person” activity like writing a physical check at least once a year.

WellsTrade and Zecco enter the top 10 this year, but Vanguard and OptionsXpress were bumped out. Vanguard was #7 in their 2011 rankings. There was no mention of what happened… I’d like to know if they were notably worse in some area or were simply excluded? OptionsXpress was bought by Schwab last year, but still runs an independent site.

Finally, there was no mention of the quantity and quality of the commission-free ETF lists offered by the majority of these brokers. If anything, I thought that was more important to mention than smartphone apps that scan product barcodes at the grocery store.

Finding The Best Broker For You

Don’t forget to compare these results with the Consumer Reports 2012 Rankings and the Barron’s 2012 Rankings. The key is to drill down to see which broker satisfies your personal set of needs the best, as there is a lot of fluff in there. This is why I’d rather look at specific sub-rankings more closely than the big headline “Top 10” rankings.

Take the “Banking” category, which included as a criteria but some brokers just don’t offer banking services and I don’t think they should be penalized for it. Another area I don’t care about is “Research” tools. I’ve ever used a broker for research. Morningstar offers me everything that I need, otherwise I just look at Google/Yahoo quotes and look for related news and blog articles. I don’t see how a discount broker would have the time or resources for unique analysis. Just give me cheap trades with good fills, solid customer service when I need it, and track my capital gains and tax lots accurately.

What’s The Record For Multiple Mortgage Refinances Within a Short Period?

…because it looks like I’m getting another one. After seeing repeated news articles titled “Mortgage rate set record lows”, I’m now looking at refinancing to a 15-year fixed mortgage for 3% with all lender closing costs covered. I’ve seen multiple quotes for under 3% and getting under or close to zero in net fees.

Here’s a chart of the historical mortgage rate averages, courtesy of HSH.com. It includes the 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, and the 5/1 30-year adjustable. Since I bought my home less than 5 years ago, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have ranged from a high of 7% to just above 4% today.

Even though I stopped trying to predict mortgage rates a while ago, I still find it hard to believe that I started with an interest rate of over 6% and now could be paying under 3% with a no-cost refi.

Alternative investments
If I successfully close on this loan, I don’t know if I’ll be aggressively paying it down as much as before. It’s important to note that the risk levels are not the same for the options below, but the interest rate environment is finally tipping to the point that I’d consider investing instead of paying off 3% debt.

  • I could buy super-safe US Treasury bonds, with yields at ~2.2% for a 15-year maturity. Interest on Treasury bonds are exempt from state income taxes.
  • I could buy a municipal bond fund like the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund (VWIUX), which invests in investment-grade municipal bonds. The fund holdings have a duration of about 5 years and yields nearly 2% federally tax-exempt. If you’re in the highest tax bracket, that would be an effective yield of ~3%.
  • If I lived in California, I could buy shares of the Vanguard California Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund (VCITX) with 2.60% yield that is exempt from both federal and state income taxes, with a duration of 6.4 years. That could be an effective yield of well over 4%.
  • I could take on more risk and buy shares of mature, dividend-paying companies. The Vanguard Equity Income Fund (VEIRX) has a current dividend yield of nearly 3%.

I’m going through a local mortgage broker, but you can find similar rates over at Amerisave. If the “all lender fees and points” is negative, that means the credit they give you is more than all closing costs including appraisals and title insurance. (Anyone use them before?) Compare that with rate quotes from and Quicken Loans.

Sell in May and Go Away? How About Remember To Rebalance In May and November

“Sell in May and go away” is a rhyming market-timing slogan that may never… go away. Here’s a graphic that seems to support the idea that stocks have historically performed much worse between May and October than the rest of the year. Credit to Reuters/Scott Barber via Abnormal Returns. Data set is the MSCI World Index from 1971-2011.

Meanwhile, The Big Picture shares a bunch of graphs from TheChartStore that don’t make it look so clear-cut. Looking at this one, why shouldn’t just bail out every September? Data set is the S&P 500 from 1928-2011.

Larry Swedroe tests the theory out using 30-day Treasury bonds as the alternative investment in this CBS Moneywatch article:

He looked at returns through 2007 from six start dates since 1950. “Sell in May” beat “buy and hold” if you started investing in 1960, 1970 and 2000, but not if you started in 1950, 1980 or 1990. “It’s pure randomness,” Swedroe says. “How would you ever know when to start?”

Throw in the tax implications of all that buying and selling, and I agree. Do you really want to base your investing strategy on a data-mining result that has no logical explanation behind it? Sounds too much like driving a car using only your rearview mirror.

However, Tadas Viskanta of Abnormal Returns has what I think is a reasonable compromise – what if you just decided to rebalance your portfolio at the very end of April and the very end of October? You should rebalance your portfolio regularly anyway, so why not do it twice a year, six months apart. If your target asset allocation is 70% stocks/30% bonds and now you’re at 80/20 due to the recent run-up, why not go back to 70/30. If things end up at 60/40 in November, then again, go back to 70/30.

You could call it “Remember to Rebalance in May and November”. It even rhymes! If “sell in may” really works, you’ll get some benefit from this mean reversion wackiness. If it’s just noise, you portfolio shouldn’t theoretically be hurt any more than picking other months.

Why Mutual Fund Fees Are Important But Often Ignored + More Vanguard Fee Savings

I am often reminded when talking with friends and coworkers that most people don’t understand the important of low fees when it comes to investing. The Vanguard blog had a recent post exploring why a 1% expense ratio is much more significant than it appears. The problem is that expense ratios aren’t charged to you directly as a line item like an overdraft fee or a monthly bill – it is quietly taken away in tiny pieces from your returns which makes it easy to ignore.

For another, fees are expressed as a fraction of assets. A 1% equity management fee seems small and reasonable. “One percent” just sounds tiny – as in “there’s a 1% chance of rain tomorrow.” But suppose you reframe fees in other terms. Suppose you expect a stock fund to earn 8% over the long run. Assuming inflation of 3% and a tax rate of 25%, you’re in effect paying one out of every three dollars of future expected return in costs.* A fee of “one third of all of the money you make” sounds like a lot, especially when many money managers could do worse than the market averages.

Basically, if you are expecting to earn 3% a year above inflation after taxes, paying 1% to a manager is like paying 1/3rd of all your earnings. As you can see below, I could own the S&P 500 for as little as 0.05%. Things get even worse when looking at bond funds and their tiny yields.

Research has shown repeatedly that costs matter more than star ratings and past performance. The lower the expenses, the less headwind year in and year out.

With that knowledge, Vanguard has announced another round of fee cuts! Vanguard says the price drops are a result of them being client-owned and passing on any savings resulting from increased assets. Others speculate that it’s a reaction to competition from other low-cost ETF providers like Schwab. Either way, investors win. The drops are pretty small, but to me it’s like getting a little guaranteed boost in returns that will compound every year. A selected sample of funds with fee drops below:

Funds In My Personal Portfolio Old expense ratio New expense ratio
Vanguard 500 Index Fund (Admiral/ETF Shares) 0.06% 0.05%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (Admiral/ETF) 0.07% 0.06%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund (ETF) 0.23% 0.21%
Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund (Investor) 0.37% 0.35%
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (Admiral/ETF) 0.11% 0.10%
Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (Investor) 0.22% 0.20%

Admiral shares are now open in most index funds with a $10,000 investment, and you can always start like I did with the Investor shares at $3,000 and convert to Admiral when the balances grow. ETFs usually offer the same low expense ratios as Admiral shares, but you should also keep in mind the cost of trade commissions. Buying Vanguard ETFs and mutual funds directly with an account with Vanguard is free. TD Ameritrade also offers commission-free trades on a wide variety of Vanguard ETFs (along with other providers).

Over the last year or so, Vanguard has made several moves that lowered my portfolio costs. They added Admiral shares, removed purchase fees on their Emerging Markets fund, and dropped expense ratios again.

Creating Retirement Income Only From Dividends and Interest?

What happens when you finally want to live off of your portfolio? Most withdrawal methods call for a combination of spending dividends and selling shares to cover the rest. But what if you wanted to live only off of dividends from your stocks and the interest from bonds? I was curious to see how this would have worked out historically.

Let’s say you had $100,000 invested in a mutual fund, and you had to live off the dividend income produced from those shares without any additional buying or selling. I found historical price data and dividend distributions for select funds from Yahoo Finance that went back to 1987-1990, and added up the trailing 12 months of dividends to see how much money they would have generated over a year’s time.

The Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund (VWINX) is a low-cost, actively-managed fund which has been around since 1970. It is composed of approximately 35% dividend-oriented stocks and 65% bonds (mostly corporate for higher yields). This conservative allocation is designed to create a steady income stream with less focus on capital appreciation. Let’s see how $100,000 invested in 1988 would have done in terms of income:

In 1988, interest rates were relatively high and $100,000 of Wellesley shares would have created nearly $9,000 of annual income. In 2012, that same set of shares would be worth $156,000 and your income would be about $5,400 annually. The income produced had some swings, but overall did not seem to track with inflation although the share price did better. According to the CPI, $100,000 in 1988 would buy as much stuff as $180,000 today.

The Vanguard 500 Index Fund was the first index fund available to the public and is now one of the largest funds in the world, passively following the S&P 500 index of large US companies since 1976 and thus always 100% stocks. Even though this is not a dividend-focused fund, it still does produce a regular stream of dividends from the companies it tracks:

In contrast, $100,000 of the Vanguard 500 Fund would have only created about $2,700 of income in 1988, but that income has grown over the next 24 years to about $8,800 today in 2012. Also of high significance is that the value of your $100,000 worth of shares from 1988 would be worth around $500,000 today.

This is just a limited snapshot of two funds, but it would suggest that you can’t just buy an income-oriented fund that has a large chunk of bonds and expect to sit back and spend whatever dividends are spit out. However, things would have turned out much better if one was reinvesting a big chunk of those Wellesley dividends when the overall yield was high. I can still envision a income-oriented portfolio, but I will have to set a reasonable withdrawal rate that isn’t too high and have the discipline to plow the rest back into buying more shares.

Financial Status Bar & Goal Updates

This updated post explains my ratio-based method of tracking our financial progress towards early retirement (as shown by the status indicator on the top right of every blog page).

Cash Reserves / Emergency Fund

Our goal is to always have a full year of expenses in cash equivalents as our “emergency fund”. (This is not the same as a year of income. Our expenses are much lower than our income.) This is a cushion for a variety of potential events including job loss, health concerns, or other unplanned costs. It also allows us to take a more long-term view with our investment portfolio since we know we won’t have to touch it.

Since our emergency fund is relatively large, I try to maximize the yield. If we stuck it all in a money market fund, the yield would be barely above zero. With a bit of work, our cash earns a blended rate of over 2% annually without taking on extra risk. We use the same accounts to make money from no fee 0% APR balance transfer offers, but currently don’t play that “game”. Here are recent updates on where we keep our cash:

March 2013 Cash Reserves Update
June 2012 Cash Reserves Update
March 2012 Cash Reserves Update
May 2011 Cash Reserves Update
January 2011 Cash Reserves Update

Home Equity

I don’t think everyone should buy a house (or more accurately, take out a huge loan on a house), as it historically doesn’t necessarily work out to be a very good investment over short or even long periods. However, if you are geographically stable, I do think buying and eventually owning a house free and clear can be a solid component of an early retirement plan. My current forecast is to have our house paid off in 10-15 5-10 years. Housing is very expensive where I live, so once that mortgage payment is gone, the actual income my investments will have to produce will drop drastically.

There are many ways to define home equity, and I am sticking to a simple method of calculating home equity by taking 100% minus (outstanding mortgage balance / original home purchase price). As of 2011, our home price has rebounded to over the original purchase price according to a refinance appraisal and comparable sales. Overall, I’d rather enjoy having continuous progress without worrying about my home’s exact market value. Here are some previous mortgage updates:

April 2013 Mortgage Paid Off
[…]
November 2011 Mortgage Payoff Update
February 2011 Mortgage Payoff Update

Investment Portfolio

The goal of my investment portfolio is allow withdrawals to support our needed expenses in “retirement”. Again, income and expenses are not the same thing. After mortgage payoff, I expect our required expenses to be less than 25% of our current income. I like to assume a simple 3% safe withdrawal rate, which means for every $100,000 saved, I can generate $3,000 a year of inflation-adjusted income for the rest of our lives. I used to assume 4%, but since our target “retirement” age is in our 40s and not 60s, I feel that 3% is better. Even 3% is not guaranteed, but again it does provide a quick estimate of progress. Here are recent portfolio updates:

June 2013 Investment Portfolio Update
January 2013 Investment Portfolio Update
July 2012 Investment Portfolio Update
February 2012 Investment Portfolio Update
November 2011 Investment Portfolio Update
July 2011 Investment Portfolio Update

My initial goal was to try and keep the home equity and expense replacement ratio about the same so that both will reach 100% at the same time, but we’ll see. I am still (very slowly) researching shifting to a more income-oriented portfolio that yields about 3% and has a principal value that can grow with inflation.

The actual implementation of my plan will probably require more flexibility. At some point, I plan on using some of my money and invest in an immediate annuity for some income stability. I’ll also need to vary my exact withdrawal rates a bit with market conditions. Once I reach age 70 or so, Social Security will kick in something. I don’t think Social Security will disappear although I do expect means-testing, but who knows these days.

Dilbert Teaches You About Investing

The Dilbert comic often dispenses good investing advice, but sometimes it’s either so spot on or so subtle that I think it’s worth repeating to makes sure everyone gets the lesson behind the joke.

Perils of market timing explained:


Alternate title: Momentum investing explained, via Abnormal Returns

Survivorship bias explained:


This actually happens!

Financial advisors with high costs and bad incentive structures explained:


Buyer beware…

Subprime mortgage crisis explained:


Diversification!

On a more serious and practical note, don’t forget about Dilbert’s One-Page Guide to Everything Financial.

FutureAdvisor: Free Online Portfolio Management and Asset Allocation

Another new online portfolio management tool is FutureAdvisor. I want to say they were invite-only for a while, but they appear to be wide open to new accounts now. Their basic account is free “forever”, and you can add 24/7 portfolio rebalancing alerts along with an annual videoconference call with an advisor for $49/year. The process of setting things up is pretty simple with the following steps laid out:

Personal Profile
Enter pertinent information such as current age, current income, desired retirement age, and desired retirement income. I like that they don’t just assume that you want to spend 80% of your current income in retirement. However, the total of your portfolio holdings entered here will be replace by whatever you share in the next step. I’m not really sure why they bother asking.

Financial Profile
You can either manually enter your portfolio holdings or have them import it automatically using your username and password. Most major brokerage companies including 401k accounts are available, but I did notice some that are currently not supported. The supported list includes Vanguard, Fidelity (w/ Netbenefits), Schwab, Merrill, and TD Ameritrade. The unsupported list includes TradeKing, Zecco, and Interactive Brokers.

Asset Allocation
Based on the information given and that same ole’ multiple-choice risk questionnaire, they will suggest to you a model asset allocation. You can tweak the target by picking between Conservative (60/40 stocks/bonds), Moderate (80/20), and Aggressive (90/10). Here’s the conservative asset allocation assigned to me:
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Barron’s Top Online Broker Rankings 2012

Weekly business newspaper Barron’s recently released their 2012 annual broker survey rankings. A change from last year is that now the quality and availability of mobile apps for smartphones and iPads are now part of the criteria, as well as more attention paid to the ability to place transactions directly on international exchanges.

Barron’s admits their overall rankings are based on the needs of their paying subscribers – namely “wealthy, active traders”. As such, their overall winner was Interactive Brokers, which has an extensive feature set with low per-trade commissions but also requires a minimum opening balance of $10,000, a minium monthly fee of $10, and is lacking customer service especially for smaller investors.

I am not an active trader, I would say I do less than 50 trades a year mostly using ETFs. Based on no data whatsoever, I would guess that most readers here are also not active traders and don’t need a full-service terminal with real-time streaming charts and complex options order-entry capability. (Although I know some of you are.) Now, I still like having real-time quotes, a nice user interface, and friendly service when I need it. So thankfully Barron’s also ranked the brokers for other investing styles:

Top 5 Brokers for Novice Investors

  1. TD Ameritrade. Notes above-average costs, but more features and good mobile app. Curiously, no mention of the 100 commission-free ETF list.
  2. Fidelity
  3. E-Trade
  4. Charles Schwab
  5. Capital One 360 Sharebuilder

Top 5 Brokers for Long-Term Investing

  1. Fidelity – Notes good mix of reasonable cost, research tools, and overall usability.
  2. TD Ameritrade
  3. Charles Schwab
  4. E-Trade
  5. TradeKing

Top 5 Brokers for In-Person Service

  1. Scottrade. Notes over 500 physical branches across US.
  2. Merrill Edge
  3. Charles Schwab
  4. Fidelity
  5. TD Ameritrade

I found it weird that they mention Scottrade’s meager list of proprietary commission-free ETFs that nobody hardly uses, but completely ignore the fact that TD Ameritrade includes 100 of the world’s largest and most heavily traded ETFs on their commission-free list. I guess they really are laser-focused on daytraders and people trading on Asian exchanges in the middle of the night.

Warren Buffett Was Nearly Content With Early Retirement At 25

snowball_bookHere is an insightful ForbesLife interview by Warren Buffett in their “When I was 25” series. The article is primarily about how he ended up starting the investing partnership that eventually became Berkshire Hathaway. But what I didn’t know was that before that happened, he actually was ready to settle down in early retirement when he was 25 years old, content to invest just his own money:

The thing is, when I got out of college, I had $9,800, but by the end of 1955, I was up to $127,000. I thought, I’ll go back to Omaha, take some college classes, and read a lot—I was going to retire! I figured we could live on $12,000 a year, and off my $127,000 asset base, I could easily make that. I told my wife, “Compound interest guarantees I’m going to get rich.” […]

I had no plans to start a partnership, or even have a job. I had no worries as long as I could operate on my own. I certainly did not want to sell securities to other people again.

Adjusting for inflation using CPI, $127,000 in 1955 would be about $1,100,000 in 2012 dollars. Spending $12,000 a year in 1955 would be just about $100,000 a year today. A 9% portfolio withdrawal rate is pretty high, but then again he’s Warren Buffett.

If he had gone the early retirement route, I’m sure he’d still be a comfortably rich Nebraska family man today, but given his quiet lifestyle we probably wouldn’t know anything about him. In fact, Buffett had already turned down an offer to be a partner in the hedge fund that Benjamin Graham founded. But events conspired to let him manage other people’s money without the pressures of salesmanship or marketing, and $50 billion later he’s one of the richest people alive.

I already knew from reading his biography The Snowball that he was quite the young entrepreneur and by 16 years old he had already accumulated over $58,000 in 2012 dollars ($5,000 in 1946). This was from many different micro-businesses including delivering newspapers, selling everything from gum to car washes, and owning pinball machines. He already knew that the faster he earned that money, the more time he would have to let compound interest do its thing. After moving back to Omaha, he even rented a house at first instead of buying so he wouldn’t have to commit any of his precious capital.

In any case, interesting that his initial goal was early retirement and career freedom, not necessarily doing whatever he could to accumulate more money. I look forward to the other articles in this series.

MarketRiders Portfolio Manager Review: First Look, Asset Allocation

Time to try out another online portfolio manager – MarketRiders.com. While previously-reviewed Betterment is an website/broker/advisor combo that handles all the decisions and trade executions for you, MarketRiders is more like an online portfolio coach telling you what trades to place yourself at the discount broker of your choice. Both services offer diversified portfolios using low-cost index ETFs, but think of it as one cooks you a nice tray of lasagna while the other one provides you a detailed, step-by-step recipe.

Free Trial Sign-up
To find out what the recipe is, you have to sign up for a free 30-day trial with your credit card information. The regular price for the service is $149.95 a year or $14.95 per month. You will be auto-enrolled after 30 days, but MarketRiders promises that canceling is easy and can be done completely online within two clicks. I can confirm it is indeed that easy. Just go to My account > Manage my subscription > Cancel my subscription. You still even get to use the rest of your free 30 days after canceling. Now, what do you get?
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Vanguard Lowers My Portfolio’s Fund Fees… Again!

There will always be debate regarding investing in actively-managed stock pickers vs. passive index followers. But even for active managers, costs matter more than star ratings and past performance. The lower the expenses, the less headwind year in and year out.

The best thing about using Vanguard funds is that they have consistently lowered my investment fees over time as their own costs have dropped. When that happens, it’s like getting guaranteed higher returns that continue to compound each year.

Last year, they lowered the fees on several funds and also added Admiral shares. Last month, they dropped some fees on their Emerging Markets fund. Most recently, they announced another round of expense ratio cuts. Check the article for all the funds, but here are the ones that I hold:

Funds In My Personal Portfolio Old expense ratio New expense ratio
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (Investor shares) 0.35% 0.33%
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (ETF/Admiral) 0.22% 0.20%
FTSE All-World ex-US Index (ETF) 0.22% 0.18%
Total International Stock Index (Investor shares) 0.26% 0.22%
Total International Stock Index (ETF/Admiral) 0.20% 0.18%

The total weighted expense ratio of my investments is probably under 0.20% annually now. The only way to go lower is to hold the stocks or bonds directly in a brokerage account, and even then I have consider commission charges.