Webull ACAT Transfer Bonus: 3% to 4% of Assets ($2k/100k Minimum)

Posted on January 7, 2026 // 8 Comments

Updated with new offer. The Webull brokerage app is offering an updated ACAT Transfer bonus of up to 4% of assets transferred plus up to $100 in outgoing fee reimbursements on your first transfer of at least $2,000. This specific offer ends March 31, 2026. This is for individual taxable brokerage accounts. Joint, Crypto, and IRA accounts are excluded.

You must transfer at least $100,000 in assets to get a 4% match, with a minimum hold of 5 years to get the full payout (they break it up into installments with the last one being paid March 2031). Max funding is $2,000,000. You must transfer at least $2,000 in assets to get a 3% match, also with a minimum hold of 5 years. 4% is a very high bonus, but it is a long hold period. Be sure to read all the terms and conditions.

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Investing //

2025 Year-End Review: Asset Class & Target Date Fund Returns

Posted on January 4, 2026 // 1 Comment

2025 saw positive returns for every broad asset class that I track. Per Morningstar, here are the total annual returns (includes price appreciation and dividends/interest) for select asset classes as benchmarked by popular ETFs after market close 12/31/25.

I didn’t include Bitcoin or any other crypto because I don’t track them as a long-term asset, only own small amounts temporarily, and would not advise my family to own it. However, I do acknowledge that it went down slightly this year.

Meanwhile, Gold went up by a lot this year, which indicates to me that Gold and Bitcoin have some very different characteristics. Very few developed countries are buying large amounts of Bitcoin to store in their central bank vaults.

The “set and forget” Vanguard Target Retirement 2055 fund (VFFVX), currently consisting of roughly 90% diversified stocks and 10% bonds, was up 21.4% in 2025.

Commentary. 2024 yet again shows that you want to stay in the game. There are always going to be reasons to be afraid: because US stocks continue to have historically high valuations, because you’re worried about an AI bubble, or worried that AI will instead take your job…

Here are your cumulative returns through the end of 2025 if you had been a steady investor in the Vanguard Target Retirement 2055 for many years despite the many, many problems of the world:

(These work great inside 401ks and IRAs. I’d avoid buying Target Retirement mutual funds in a taxable account.)

I feel the need to promote slow compounding over all the short-term madness around us. Sports gambling. Risky options trading. Crypto joke coins. Buy Now Pay Later. I tell my kids that it’s perfectly okay to avoid some stuff completely. You don’t need to try it to know it’s a bad idea.

Filed Under: Banking, Investing, Retirement //

The Central Struggle of Investing: Repeatedly Choosing Easy but Boring

Posted on December 17, 2025 // 5 Comments

Michael Burry, of “Big Short” fame, recently shut down his hedge fund and started a Substack with an educational goal. I enjoy following his musings because he’s not afraid to say what he thinks, even if I often don’t agree (or have any idea what he’s obliquely referring to). He recently posted a “foundational” article that is supposed to show his thinking process, with a familiar beginning:

For those that do not trust anything analog, since 1990, there have been over 750 replacements in the S&P 500 Index. Google’s Gemini 3 Pro swears by it. Claude Max agrees.

Gemini 3 Pro and Claude Max further propose that 45% of the top 20 names in the 1999 NASDAQ 100 ended up bankrupt or acquired after a >75% loss. This checks out, my conference room says.

Capital is always fighting to be recycled.

Thusly, you now carry the knowledge that most investors are best off in an index – and have no need to invest in individual stocks.

If one is rather young and has 50-70 years left, then one absolutely should be almost entirely invested in common stock indices, preferably the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100 or both. Live life, touch grass, achieve real things, automatically reinvest dividends, and let the compounding of the Index Gods do the work. Maybe not this very day, but over time, this is the way for most.

Of course, some of us just do…not…want…easy.

For them, well, their God gave them GameStop.

He then goes very deep into how he analyzed GameStop and through skill and smarts, of course made some nice returns on the trade.

This is the central humblebrag of professional investors. *You* should index, but here’s what *I* do instead.

This also relates to the central struggle for all individual investors. If you are a motivated person who studies investing with an honest and open mind, you realize that you probably shouldn’t really be actively trading. But if you are a motivated person who studies investing, you probably think you are in the tiny minority that can make money reliably with actively trading. Smart enough to turn off “easy” mode.

The other problem with “easy” is that it is usuually boring and often slow. Meanwhile, your Robinhood app or equivalent will happily sell you:

  • Crypto, including memecoins that have zero utility.
  • Gambling, err “Prediction markets” on this weekend’s NFL game.
  • “Dividend” ETFs with a crazy 12% yield that some think will last forever.
  • Aggressive options that can lose all your money within days.
  • “Boomer candy” ETFs that promise stock-like upside with zero downside.
  • Index “Plus”. Index with extra ketchup. Index minus the ketchup. Just 25 basis points extra!

I spend a lot of my own time doing just this – reading such interesting ideas across various corners of the investing world but repeatedly convincing myself to pick “easy”. Doing nothing, over and over again.

Filed Under: Investing //

Fidelity Tax-Loss Harvesting Tool: Help Identify Capital Loss Opportunities

Posted on December 15, 2025 // 2 Comments

Fidelity has a number of useful Tools & Calculators, most of which are open to everyone to use. However, their Tax-Loss Harvesting Tool (login required) is meant for Fidelity taxable brokerage customers, as it is based on your personal data and shows the size of your expected capital gains this year, while also helping you identify capital losses that you can “harvest” if you wanted.

You’ll need to provide your marginal tax rates (make an estimate with current brackets here). The tool can even help you place the (market) order to sell those shares with just a couple clicks.

This Fidelity article How to reduce investment taxes contains a lot of details on the practice of tax-loss harvesting:

An investment loss can be used for 2 different things:

– The losses can be used to offset investment gains.
– Remaining losses can offset $3,000 of income on a tax return in one year. (For married individuals filing separately, the deduction is $1,500.)

[…] There are 2 types of gains and losses: short-term and long-term.

– Short-term capital gains and losses are those realized from the sale of investments that you have owned for one year or less.
– Long-term capital gains and losses are realized after selling investments held longer than one year.
The key difference between short- and long-term gains is the rate at which they are taxed.

Short-term capital gains are taxed at your marginal tax rate as ordinary income. The top marginal federal tax rate on ordinary income is 37%.

Wash sale warning: The tool can’t cross-reference all your other non-Fidelity trades, and also doesn’t even account for your Fidelity trades within tax-deferred accounts. If a wash sale occurs, your loss will be disallowed. Here’s the warning provided:

Wash sale warning: Estimated savings based on tax-loss harvesting assumes that you will not have a wash sale that would defer your tax loss.

If you sell shares at a loss and you purchase additional shares of the same or a substantially identical security (in the same or a different account) within the 61-day period that begins 30 days before and ends 30 days after the trade date of the sale, the purchase may result in a wash sale. If a wash sale occurs, the loss from the transaction will be “disallowed” for tax purposes, and the amount of the loss will be added to the cost basis of your shares in the same security. Fidelity adjusts cost basis information related to shares in the same security when a wash sale occurs within an account as the result of an identical security purchase.

You must check your own records across all of your Fidelity and non-Fidelity accounts to ensure that you are correctly accounting for losses related to any wash sales.

ETFs are often the easiest way to harvest a tax loss. Even if you buy-and-hold ETFs, consider ETF tax-loss harvesting (my post from 2008?!) as you can harvest the loss from the sale of an ETF, and then immediately buy a similar but not “substantially identical” ETF without triggering a wash sale. This has become common industry practice. There’s a Fidelity article on this too.

When evaluating your ETFs against the wash-sale rule, compare the issuer, index, and underlying holdings between the two ETFs being swapped. The more dissimilar these are, the more likely it is that you won’t trigger a wash sale.

Even Vanguard does ETF tax-loss harvesting in their advisory services using “surrogate ETFs”.

Surrogate funds are the ETFs (exchange?traded funds) Vanguard Personal Advisor uses toreplace investments sold to harvest losses. They are Vanguard ETFs® with similar asset and sub?asset allocations to the funds we’re replacing.

There may not be as many opportunities to harvest a tax loss this year since most things are up (a good thing!), but something to keep in mind down the road.

The usual disclaimer: I do not provide legal or tax advice. The information herein is general and educational in nature and should not be considered legal or tax advice.

Filed Under: Investing //

LifeX TIPS ETFs: Monthly Inflation-Adjusted Income

Posted on December 11, 2025 // 4 Comments

Sometimes it seems like everyone just wants risk these days. Crypto. Sports gambling. Options trading, ETFs that magically yield 10% or more. However, if you’re in the opposite camp and you want the absolute least amount of risk, you’d want to retire off an investment that has a return that is fully-guaranteed, pays out a monthly income like clockwork, is even guaranteed to grow with inflation. Inflation was relatively mild for a long time until recently, but historically it has been a significant risk factor.

If that interests you, check out 3 Ways to Build an Inflation-Adjusted Pension by Allan Roth – which first reminds you that Social Security is exactly this! – but also introduces a new series of LifeX Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETFs.

At current rates as of 12/11/25, the LifeX 2055 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF (LIAM) contains a managed portfolio of United States Treasury Inflation Indexed Bonds (TIPS) that can provide you with a 4.26% guaranteed real withdrawal rate for 30 years. That means a $1,000,000 portfolio would distribute roughly $42,600 in annual income this year, but that number would increase with CPI inflation each year for 30 years (through the year 2055). At 3% average inflation, your 30th year’s income would have grown to over $100,000 a year. Of course, inflation could be a lot higher, which is why no private insurance company will sell you inflation protection over such a long period of time.

After those 30 years, you will be left with nothing. Your initial principal will be gone. Therefore, your income taken each year is partially a return of principal.

The expense ratio is 0.25%, which isn’t Vanguard-level but not horrible. I like that it does all of the work for you in a tidy ETF package, as building a TIPS ladder yourself can be a bit tricky (and do you want to keep doing it at age 80, 90?). Of course, I also worry about what happens if you bought a 30-year ladder at 65 and happen to live past 95. It could happen, and remember, this product is meant for the risk-averse folks that like to cover all the bases.

In general, I feel a TIPS ladder or equivalent that adjusts with inflation would work well in combination with a traditional annuity like an SPIA or a deferred longevity annuity that starts at a later age, which doesn’t adjust with inflation but does provide an higher initial fixed income that can last as long as you live. This is what I have set up for my parents – Social Security that rises with inflation, plus a joint income annuity that pays out as long as one is living.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

SoFi Offers: SoFi Plus Changes, New 5% Grocery Card, $325/4.20% APY Checking Bonus, $300-$1000 Loan Bonuses

Posted on December 10, 2025 // 80 Comments

Update December 2025: SoFi announced some changes to their available features and what is only available with their SoFi Plus “Premium” membership program. I feel that they are trying to build something like “Robinhood Gold”, but hopefully better promos are coming because I don’t feel the perks are worth the cost right now. First, there are now three different ways to earn their higher APY tier (any single ONE of these is enough):

  • Eligible Direct Deposit of any amount (even $1). Many people can split their paycheck multiple ways.
  • $5,000+ in combined balances across SoFi Checking and Savings accounts
  • SoFi Plus members that pay $10/month fee.

You can see this on their rate sheet (as of 11/12/25):

Second, SoFi Plus is now paid-only at $10/month. You no longer get it for free with a direct deposit, although they are extending complimentary access to all SoFi Plus benefits through March 30, 2026 with eligible deposits. You can see a list of SoFi Plus benefits here.

For the most part, the SoFi Plus benefits are the same as before. A notable new addition is the SoFi Smart Card which is a charge card linked to your SoFI Bank accounts that offers unlimited 5% cash back at grocery stores.

Otherwise, I would say the most valuable SoFi Plus perks that existing Direct Deposit folks lost with this change are:

  • 10% rewards boost on the SoFi Unlimited 2% Credit Card, which turns the 2% cash back into 2.2% cash back.
  • 2% match on recurring IRA contributions, plus a 1% match on recurring deposits made through SoFi Invest taxable brokerage accounts.
  • Possibly the ability to “schedule an unlimited number of appointments with a financial planner”, although I’m not sure of the quality of this advice. There is no indication you’re guaranteed at least a CFP. I’ve never used this feature, but it might be nice if you wanted to get some general advice.

Update April 2024: SoFi made a few notable changes recently, both positive and negative:

  • The SoFi Unlimited 2% Credit Card added 10% boost on their rewards with direct deposit into SoFi Checking or Savings. This would work out to 2.2% cash back rewards points on everyday purchases. (As of December 2025, this is now restricted to SoFi Plus members paying $10 a month.)
  • There is a new inactivity fee of $25 per account for every 6 months of login inactivity.
  • The outgoing ACAT transfer fee was increased to $100. Previously $75.

Original post:

SoFi (“Social Finance”) is an all-in-one finance app that expanded from students loans into banking, stocks, crypto, credit cards, and more. Here are their current promotional offers; New users can receive a separate opening bonus for each separate part of SoFi (Money, Invest, Loans, etc).

  • SoFi Checking Referral Offer: Up to $325 new user bonus. Open a new SoFi Money account and add at least $10 to your account within 5 days, and get $25. Then get up to $300 additional bonus with qualifying direct deposit. Plus up to 4.30% APY.
  • SoFi Credit Score Tracking Offer: $10 in rewards bonus points. You’ll earn $10 in rewards points when you activate free credit score monitoring
  • SoFi Invest Referral Offer: $25 new user bonus. Taxable brokerage account. Open an Active Investing account with $10 or more, and you’ll get $25 in stock.
  • SoFi 401(k) Rollover Offer: Up to $10,000 Bonus. Get a 1% match when you roll over your 401(k) into a SoFi IRA. Partnered with Capitalize to make the transition easier.
  • SoFi Student Loan Refi: $300 bonus. Warning: Do your research before refinancing your Federal student loans to a private lender.
  • SoFi Doctors and Dentists Student Loan Refi: $1,000 bonus. Special low rates just for doctors and dentists.
  • SoFi Private Student Loan: $300 bonus.
  • SoFi Personal Loans Referral Offer: Fixed $300 bonus. Fixed $300 bonus, 90 days after successful funding. The loan has no fees and you can pay it back in full after 90 days (you can pay it down to $50 before then to accrue minimal interest, thus making a new profit after the bonus).
Filed Under: Banking, Deals & Offers, Investing //

Valuation Gap Chart: US vs. International Developed vs. Emerging Markets

Posted on December 9, 2025 // 2 Comments

As 2025 winds down, you will probably read a lot of articles remarking how international stock indexes have outperformed US stock indexes like the S&P 500 by a significant amount this year. This hasn’t happened in a while! Yet, the following chart shows that the gap in valuations is still very wide.

PE10 stands for the ratio of price to 10-year average trailing earnings (AKA CAPE ratio, or cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio) which attempts to smooth out earnings spikes. Image via TopDownCharts.

Filed Under: Investing //

Best Interest Rates Survey: Bank Accounts, Treasury Bills, Money Markets, ETFs – December 2025

Posted on December 5, 2025 // 2 Comments

Here’s my monthly survey of the best interest rates on cash as of December 2025, roughly sorted from shortest to longest maturities. Banks and brokerages love taking advantage of idle cash, and you can often earning more money while keeping the same level of safety by moving to another FDIC-insured bank or NCUA-insured credit union. Check out my Ultimate Rate-Chaser Calculator to see how much extra interest you could earn from switching. Rates listed are available to everyone nationwide. Rates checked as of 12/5/2025.

TL;DR: Savings account interest rates have dropped slightly overall, moving with Fed rates. You can still get 4.6% and 4.5% APY if you accept some hoops/restrictions, but most are a little under 4% now. Short-term T-Bill rates have fallen, now ~3.7%. Top 5-year CD rates are ~4.25% APY, while 5-year Treasury rate is ~3.7%.

High-yield savings accounts*
Since the huge megabanks still pay essentially no interest, everyone should at least have a separate, no-fee online savings account to piggy-back onto your existing checking account. The interest rates on savings accounts can drop at any time, so I list the top rates as well as competitive rates from banks with a history of competitive rates and solid user experience. Some banks will bait you with a temporary top rate and then lower the rates in the hopes that you are too lazy to leave.

  • The top saving rate at the moment: Pibank at 4.60% APY (no min), but they have some weird restrictions; like you can only use wire/Plaid to deposit and wire transfers to withdraw funds?! Hyperion Bank has a 4.50% APY money market account ($10,000 minimum, new money) with a 6-month rate guarantee. CIT Platinum Savings is now at 3.75% APY with $5,000+ balance and is offering an up to $300 deposit bonus which increases your effective APY for a while. There are many banks in between.
  • SoFi Bank is at 3.60% APY + up to 4.30% APY for 6 months + $325 new account bonus with qualifying direct deposit. You must maintain a direct deposit of any amount (even $1) each month for the higher APY. SoFi has historically competitive rates and full banking features.
  • Here is a limited survey of high-yield savings accounts. They aren’t the top rates, but a group that have historically kept it relatively competitive such that I like to track their history. This month they start at 3.30% APY on up.

Short-term guaranteed rates (1 year and under)
A common question is what to do with a big pile of cash that you’re waiting to deploy shortly (plan to buy a house soon, just sold your house, just sold your business, legal settlement, inheritance). My usual advice is to keep things simple and take your time. If not a savings account, then put it in a flexible short-term CD under the FDIC limits until you have a plan.

  • No Penalty CDs offer a fixed interest rate that can never go down, but you can still take out your money (once) without any fees if you want to use it elsewhere. Marcus has a 13-month No Penalty CD at 3.95% APY ($500 minimum deposit). Farmer’s Insurance FCU has a 9-month No Penalty CD at 4.00% APY ($1,000 minimum deposit). USALLIANCE Financial CU has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 3.90% APY ($500 minimum deposit).
  • USALLIANCE Financial CU has a 12-month certificate at 4.18% APY ($500 min). Early withdrawal penalty is 180 days of interest. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization American Consumer Council (try promo codes “consumer”, “abnb”, or “USFFCU” to join for free).

Money market mutual funds
Many brokerage firms that pay out very little interest on their default cash sweep funds (and keep the difference for themselves). Note: Money market mutual funds are highly-regulated, but ultimately not FDIC-insured, so I would still stick with highly reputable firms.

  • Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX) is the default sweep option for Vanguard brokerage accounts, which has a 7-day SEC yield of 3.89% (changes daily, but also works out to a compound yield of 3.96%, which is better for comparing against APY). Odds are this is much higher than your own broker’s default cash sweep interest rate.
  • Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (VUSXX) is an alternative money market fund which you must manually purchase, but the interest will be mostly (100% for 2024 tax year) exempt from state and local income taxes because it comes from qualifying US government obligations. Current 7-day SEC yield of 3.88% (compound yield of 3.95%).

Treasury Bills and Ultra-short Treasury ETFs
Another option is to buy individual Treasury bills which come in a variety of maturities from 4-weeks to 52-weeks and are fully backed by the US government. You can also invest in ETFs that hold a rotating basket of short-term Treasury Bills for you, while charging a small management fee for doing so. T-bill interest is exempt from state and local income taxes, which can make a significant difference in your effective yield.

  • You can build your own T-Bill ladder at TreasuryDirect.gov or via a brokerage account with a bond desk like Vanguard and Fidelity. Here are the current Treasury Bill rates. As of 12/5/25, a new 4-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 3.72% annualized interest and a 52-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 3.61% annualized interest.
  • The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) has a 3.85% 30-day SEC yield (0.09% expense ratio) and effective duration of 0.10 years. SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) has a 3.71% 30-day SEC yield (0.136% expense ratio) and effective duration of 0.15 years. The new Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL) has a 3.89% 30-day SEC yield (0.07% expense ratio) and effective duration of 0.10 years.

US Savings Bonds
Series I Savings Bonds offer rates that are linked to inflation and backed by the US government. You must hold them for at least a year. If you redeem them within 5 years there is a penalty of the last 3 months of interest. The annual purchase limit for electronic I bonds is $10,000 per Social Security Number, available online at TreasuryDirect.gov.

  • “I Bonds” bought between November 2025 and April 2026 will earn a 4.03% rate for the first six months. The rate of the subsequent 6-month period will be based on inflation again. More on Savings Bonds here.
  • In mid-April 2026, the CPI will be announced and you will have a short period where you will have a very close estimate of the rate for the next 12 months. I will post another update at that time.

Rewards checking accounts
These unique checking accounts pay above-average interest rates, but with unique risks. You have to jump through certain hoops which usually involve 10+ debit card purchases each cycle, a certain number of ACH/direct deposits, and/or a certain number of logins per month. If you make a mistake (or they judge that you did) you risk earning zero interest for that month. Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others would rather not bother. Rates can also drop suddenly, leaving a “bait-and-switch” feeling.

  • OnPath Federal Credit Union (my review) pays 6.00% APY on up to $10,000 if you make 15 debit card purchases, opt into online statements, and login to online or mobile banking once per statement cycle. Anyone can join this credit union via $5 membership fee to join partner organization. You can also get a $150 Visa Reward card when you open a new account and make qualifying transactions.
  • Genisys Credit Union pays 6.75% APY on up to $7,500 if you make 10 debit card purchases of $5+ each per statement cycle, and opt into online statements. Anyone can join this credit union via $5 membership fee to join partner organization.
  • Oklahoma Central Credit Union pays 6.00% APY on up to $10,000 if you make 15 debit card purchases (non-ATM) per statement cycle. Anyone can join this credit union if they are “affiliated with another credit union”.
  • La Capitol Federal Credit Union pays 5.75% APY on up to $10,000 if you make 15 debit card purchases of at least $5 each per statement cycle. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization, Louisiana Association for Personal Financial Achievement ($20).
  • First Southern Bank pays 5.50% APY on up to $25,000 if you make at least 15 debit card purchases, 1 ACH credit or payment transaction, and enroll in online statements.
  • Credit Union of New Jersey pays 6.00% APY on up to $25,000 if you make 12 debit card purchases, opt into online statements, and make at least 1 direct deposit, online bill payment, or automatic payment (ACH) per statement cycle. Anyone can join this credit union via $5 membership fee to join partner organization.
  • Andrews Federal Credit Union pays 5.50% APY (down from 6%) on up to $25,000 if you make 15 debit card purchases, opt into online statements, and make at least 1 direct deposit or ACH transaction per statement cycle. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization.
  • Find a locally-restricted rewards checking account at DepositAccounts.

Certificates of deposit (greater than 1 year)
CDs offer higher rates, but come with an early withdrawal penalty. By finding a bank CD with a reasonable early withdrawal penalty, you can enjoy higher rates but maintain access in a true emergency. Alternatively, consider building a CD ladder of different maturity lengths (ex. 1/2/3/4/5-years) such that you have access to part of the ladder each year, but your blended interest rate is higher than a savings account. When one CD matures, use that money to buy another 5-year CD to keep the ladder going. Some CDs also offer “add-ons” where you can deposit more funds if rates drop.

  • United Fidelity Bank has a 5-year certificate at 4.25% APY ($1,000 minimum), 4-year at 4.20% APY, 3-year at 4.20% APY, 2-year at 4.25% APY, and 1.5-year at 4.15% APY. Early withdrawal penalties are not disclosed clearly online.
  • Mountain America Credit Union (MACU) has a 5-year certificate at 4.00% APY ($500 minimum), 4-year at 4.00% APY, 3-year at 4.05% APY, 2-year at 4.20% APY, and 1-year at 3.85% APY. Early withdrawal penalty for the 4-year and 5-year is 365 days of interest. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization American Consumer Council (use promo code “consumer” when joining).
  • You can buy certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. You may need an account to see the rates. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance and easy laddering, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. Right now, I see a 5-year non-callable brokered CD at 3.90% APY (callable: no, call protection: yes). Be warned that both Vanguard and Fidelity will list higher rates from callable CDs, which importantly means they can (and will!) call back your CD if rates drop significantly later.

Longer-term Instruments
I’d use these with caution due to increased interest rate risk (tbh, I don’t use them at all), but I still track them to see the rest of the current yield curve.

  • Willing to lock up your money for 10 years? You can buy long-term certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. You might find something that pays more than your other brokerage cash and Treasury options. Right now, I see a 10-year CDs at 4.00% (non-callable) vs. 4.13% for a 10-year Treasury. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs where they can call your CD back if interest rates drop.

All rates were checked as of 12/5/25.

* I no longer recommend fintech companies due to the possibility of significant loss due to poor recordkeeping and the lack of government protection in such scenarios. The point of cash is absolute safety of principal.

Photo by Giorgio Trovato on Unsplash

Filed Under: Banking, Deals & Offers, Investing // Tagged:

Lennar / Millrose Properties Odd Lot Tender (Sold My Shares)

Posted on December 4, 2025 // 67 Comments

Update 12/4/25 (by me). Shares sold; final profit of $890.54. My limit order was triggered yesterday and my shares were sold, closing out my position and finishing this deal. Here are my personal results, you may have done better or worse:

  • Bought 99 shares of LEN @$122.29 (11/14) for $12,107.
  • Tendered all 99 shares, exchanged for 409.53 shares of MRP (11/20 deadline).
  • Received 409 MRP shares and $15.88 cash for the partial share (12/1).
  • Sold 409 shares of MRP @$31.74 for $12,981.66 (12/3).

Net profit was $890.54. Total time between purchase and sale was 19 calendar days, working out to an internal rate of return (IRR) of 290.98%. (At 5% APY, my interest over 23 days on $12,107 would have been about $32.) I usually try to buy within a week of the tender deadline, and sell within a week of receiving the final shares, and it takes roughly a week to exchange so the total time is usually less than three weeks. The absolute ROI is 891/12107 = 7.4%.

Update 11/29/25 (by me). Check for exchanged shares. The final results have been released. My new MRP shares showed up after market close of Friday 11/28 in my Fidelity account, and probably in other brokerage accounts around this time as well. See original post below for past details, although the opportunity has passed.

The final exchange ratio was 1 share LEN to 4.1367 shares of MRP. The deal was oversubscribed, with a final proration factor of ~8.6% of shares tendered. However, those with “odd lots” of 99 shares or less were not subject to proration.

If treated as a short-term workout, your profit will depend on both your entry and exit price. This tender was drawn out due to the government shutdown, so your entry price could have varied widely, as low as around $115 per share. Mine wasn’t all that great at $122.29 x 99 shares = $12,107.

You would have gotten 409.53 shares of MRP, so 409 shares of MRP and a bit of cash later. At the Friday 11/28 close price of $30.46, 409 shares would be worth ~$12,458 for a rough profit of about ~$350 plus any fractional share payout later.

However, the actual price at which I will sell MRP is unknown. I don’t know how the market will open on Monday. I will note that 778,625 shares of LEN were tendered by odd-lot holders, which would now be about 3.2 million shares of MRP. Now, the 90-day average daily trading volume for MRP stock is only ~2 million shares. So if you think that all the odd-lot holders will want to sell, that might put some pressure on the stock for a while. I expect to watch things for a bit, but sell within a couple of weeks. Might put in a limit order.

If you did not hedge this bet (and thus losing some of the edge), then it is/was just a bet with a positive edge that you can still lose money on. Imagine you had to be “in the market” for a couple of weeks, but with a 6% buffer. If the market goes down worse than 6% during that time, you lose some money. Otherwise, you are ahead. For some, that is still too much risk. For others, it’s a gamble with an edge and they’ll take it using a appropriately sized portion of their bankroll. Personally, I would take that bet repeatedly. There’s a lot to be learned about investing with this little experiment. Again, please consider all the risks outlined in the original guest post below.

Update 11/14/25 (by me). Things moving forward. Things appear to have settled down, as this exchange offer had to be extended a few times due to the government shutdown (which includes the SEC). As it stands now, the expiration date is 12:00 midnight ET on November 21, 2025. Each broker will have their own cutoff time to participate in the offer, my Fidelity account shows a cutoff date of 11/20/2025 7:00 PM ET (although I’d call in before market close that day). I had to call in to tender my shares this time.

Lennar’s motivation to complete this exchange appears to remain strong, so my expectation is that it will go through. I make this update now because it means you still have time to do your own research (see risks explained in the guest post below), decide whether to buy 99 shares, and tender those shares. The site Envisionreports.com/lennarexchange remains a good place to see the updated live stats on this offer.

Original post 10/17/25:

From time to time, I participate in certain stock exchange offers which include a special provision for smaller investors, called “odd lot tenders”. You can find more background information on these short-term “arbitrage” plays in the last two offers that I joined: Cummins/Atmus Filtration and Johnson & Johnson/Kenvue.

Recently, Lennar (primarily a homebuilder) announced such an exchange offer as they try to complete their spinoff of Millrose Properties (an REIT, primarily a land bank). This time, Rich Howe of StockSpinoffInvesting.com – who has a lot more experience with these deals than me – has generously agreed to share his summary and analysis of the deal. Please enjoy the following guest post:

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Buy Lennar – Exchange Offer – Special Situation

October 15, 2025
LEN: $122.21
Market Cap: $30BN
Recommendation: Buy 99 shares of LEN, Exchange for shares of MRP
Expected Profit: $772 / 6.4%

Summary

Lennar (LEN) announced an exchange offer on October 10, 2025 whereby investors can exchange their LEN shares for shares of Millrose Properties (MRP), Lennar’s land bank spin-off. To incentivize the exchange, LEN investors will receive $106.43 of value in MRP shares for every $100 of value in LEN shares. I expect the exchange offer to be oversubscribed. However, there is an odd lot provision such that any LEN shareholders with 99 shares or less (odd lot provision) will not be prorated. Thus, there is an opportunity to buy 99 shares of LEN and exchange them for shares of MRP. This should result in a profit of ~6.4% / ~$757 (at current prices) in less than a month. The profit is not guaranteed (of course!) but is low risk, in my opinion. To participate in this exchange offer, you must contact your broker (you may be able to participate in the exchange offer online). It will not happen automatically.

Deadline: The exchange offer will expire on November 7, 2025. So this is time sensitive. Brokers typically require investors to give them notice about the exchange well before the official deadline. Schwab’s deadline will likely be November 5, 2025, but it would be prudent to buy on November 3, 2025 at the latest as it takes two days for shares to settle. I’m planning to buy 99 shares of LEN shares on or before November 3rd and then immediately call Schwab and ask to participate in the exchange offer. Other brokers (Fidelity, Interactive Brokers, etc.) have their own internal deadlines which are typically after the Schwab deadline.

Additional Details

Lennar (LEN) spun-off ~80% of Millrose Properties (MRP), its land bank, in February 2025.

It retained ~20% of the business.

On October 10, 2025, Lennar formally announced that it would spin off its remaining ~20% stake in Millrose Properties via an exchange offer.

I’ve highlighted key terms but you can visit the transaction’s live website with additional details.

For every $100 shares of LEN that you own, you will receive $106.38 of MRP shares.

Since this exchange represents an attractive return in a short period of time, I expect the offering to be oversubscribed (similar to previous exchange offers that I’ve covered).

However, there is an odd lot provision such that if you own fewer than 100 shares, you will not prorated.

Here is the exchange offer filing and a website which tracks the exchange offer indicative exchange ratio.

This offering is very similar to the many other split off/exchange offers that we’ve participated in.

Examples:

How to Execute the Trade

LEN is currently trading at $122.21 per share.
MRP is currently trading at $31.96.
Here’s how the math works at current price levels.

Step 1
Buy 99 shares of LEN for $122.21 per share. Total cost of $12,099.

Step 2
Per the exchange offer, shareholders who elect to exchange their LEN shares will receive MRP shares at a 6% discount or at a price of $30.04 ($31.96 x (1-6%)). The MRP price hasn’t been finalized yet. But I’m using the current price plus the discount as I think that’s the best way to approximate what the actual price will be. The actual price will be determined by a formula laid out here.

$12,099 / $30.04 = 402.72 shares of MRP

402.72 shares of LEN / 99 shares of MRP = 4.07. 4.07 is lower than the max exchange ratio of 4.1367. If the ratio were higher than 4.1367, the number of MRP shares would be maxed out at 409 (4.1367 * 99).

Step 3
Sell MRP shares that are received once the exchange goes through. It usually takes Schwab about a week to process the exchange offer. I expect to receive my MRP shares by November 14, 2025 or shortly thereafter.

At current prices, the trade is expected to generate a profit of $772.

In terms of timing, the exchange offer expires on November 7, 2025 (unless LEN changes it), and so I recommend that you buy LEN shares no later than November 3rd to ensure you make the deadline (it takes two trading days for your purchase to settle and brokers internal deadlines are usually 2 days prior to the official company deadline). After you purchase shares, call your broker and ask them to tender your shares. This is important. Your participation in the exchange isn’t automatic.

I created a spreadsheet to track the profitability of this trade. Here is a screenshot of it:

You can access the spreadsheet here: LEN / MRP Exchange Offer Spreadsheet
(to edit, make a copy of the spreadsheet and plug in your own assumptions)

Thoughts on Millrose Properties?

Millrose was created when Lennar contributed ~$5.5 billion in undeveloped, partially developed, and some fully developed land assets, along with up to $1 billion in cash, to Millrose. Millrose operates as an independent entity, acquiring and developing land to deliver finished homesites under land option contracts. At the time of the spin-off, it only served Lennar but it plans to engage with other homebuilders as well.
Lennar pays Millrose option fees for the right to buy land on Millrose’s balance sheet.

This strategic move is part of Lennar’s ongoing shift toward an asset-light operating model, aiming to reduce financial risk and enhance returns by minimizing direct land ownership.

I’m happy to own Millrose Properties at a 6% discount, but don’t want to own the stock for the long term as I believe its ability to grow and generate upside is limited given Lennar’s right to purchase its land.

What are the risks?

LEN Sells Off
If you buy LEN, and it sells off prior to the exchange, you could lose money. I’m not particularly worried about this risk, as investors will likely continue to bid LEN shares up to take advantage of the share exchange.

A major sell off could happen if some random negative news hits LEN (for instance negative news in a lawsuit). This is unlikely but did happen during the MMM/NEOG exchange offer. JNJ also had a negative court ruling during its exchange offer, but the exchange was still profitable.

If LEN does sell off, it would have to sell off by ~6.4% for you to lose money. To minimize risk, you could also short out the MRP exposure.

I looked back at the performance of the parent during similar transactions and found that it usually performs well (average: +2.2%; median: +3.8%)

The Exchange Is Canceled or the Odd Lot Provision is Removed
Lennar wants to distribute its ~20% stake in Millrose Properties and this is an efficient way to do so. I don’t expect it to be canceled, but it’s possible.
The odd lot provision could be removed, however, this has never happened for split off transactions (that I’m aware of). Nonetheless, it could happen!

Millrose Properties (MRP) Stock is Weak After the Share Exchange Closes
If the share exchange closes and investors who’ve exchanged their LEN shares for MRP shares make 6.4%, but then MRP shares immediately depreciate by more than 6.4%, this trade will lose money. In other words, this trade can lose money even though the initial math looks favorable.

While this risk is valid, I’m comfortable participating in this trade and believe it represents an attractive risk/reward.

Disclosure
Rich Howe, owner of Stock Spin-off Investing (“SSOI”), doesn’t own LEN shares but plans to buy them. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. This article is provided for informational purposes. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this content. Please do your own due diligence and consult with an investment adviser before buying or selling any stock mentioned on www.stockspinoffinvesting.com.

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Investing //

Warren Buffett’s Thanksgiving Letter 2025

Posted on November 17, 2025 // Leave a Comment

Warren Buffett will step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of 2025, which also means he will no longer write the Annual Shareholder Letter and take questions at the Annual Shareholder’s Meeting which have become so famous. Instead, he is transitioning to an annual “Thanksgiving Letter”, of which the first one just came out. I am happy that he has found another way to communicate with Berkshire Shareholders.

As always, I recommend reading it directly as his writing style is unique and also (relatively) concise. Mostly, the highlights below are a personal exercise to process and help internalize the wisdom shared.

In the first part of the letter, he reminisces about his long life and shows gratitude for the many lucky events that broke his way, starting with an emergency appendectomy as a child.

As he has reminded us in past letters, nearly everyone reading his writing has had multiple lucky breaks already. Buffett notes that he was “born in 1930 healthy, reasonably intelligent, white, male and in America.” Think about each of those individually. We have no control over them. Imagine being born with an incurable genetic disease or in a struggling country constantly ravaged by war.

In the second part, he talks about accelerating his charitable giving plans so that his children can put it to good use. I always find it interesting how Buffett hasn’t been more active at directing his enormous donations towards specific purposes, even though it’s also a way of “investing” his money. I wonder if it is because it’s so hard to measure the true impact of giving. There is no clear, numerical scorecard like share price or annualized return.

In the third part, he addresses the future of Berkshire Hathaway. From what I can see, Buffett has done a careful and thorough job of making sure his life’s “painting” is in good hands. Greg Abel looks to have all the right talents and skills to be the new boss. Ajit Jain and the rest look to be good fits and not in search of fame or power.

As a company, Berkshire remains designed to provide a very high chance of solid returns, a low chance of amazingly-high returns, and the lowest-possible chance of disaster (if BRK falls, nothing else is standing either). I plan to hold my Berkshire shares through this transition, and I hope the culture remains.

Finally, he concludes with some timeless life advice: don’t dwell on your mistakes, keep trying to improve yourself, be kind to others.

Filed Under: Giving Back, Inspirational, Investing //

529 Plan Asset Allocation: Default Glide Path vs. Custom?

Posted on November 12, 2025 // 3 Comments

My last post on treating your kids’ 529 plans as the equivalent of Roth IRAs had me thinking again about asset allocation.

  • If you plan on spending your 529 assets when your child is age 18-21, then your time horizon starts to get very short, very quickly.
  • If instead you plan on your 529 assets to be eventually rolled over into a Roth IRA, then your time horizon is several decades! In that case, why not 100% equities and let it ride?

If you use the Rule of 72 and assume very roughly that it will double every 10 years, then after 60 years you will have 64 times (!) what you put in initially. Of course with inflation that won’t be as impressive, but still.

Most 529 owners use the age-based or target-enrollment portfolios from their plan provider. Some only offer one flavor, while others split it into “conservative, moderate, and aggressive” versions. Morningstar analyzed them all in their 529 landscape report and found that they start on average with ~90% stocks and “glide” down to ~16% stocks when the beneficiary turns age 18. Up top is their graphic of average glide path.

I’ve always found this to be a pretty fast descent. If you look carefully, that means that 20% of the stocks you bought when your kid was age 1 might be sold by the time they are age 6 and 50% sold by age 11. That’s not a very long holding period.

Instead, I decided to start out 100% stocks with the idea that I wanted a long 15 year period of holding stocks for any wobbles to even out, and the plan is to reduce the stock exposure rapidly around high school (10% a year stocks to bonds over the last 5 years or so). I’ve been very fortunate with the high overall stock returns for the last 10+ years. Perhaps I’m pushing my luck now and should cut back sooner to be more in line with these institutionally-approved glide paths. But maybe if stocks tank right before age 18, I’ll just leave some in for a future Roth IRA?

Morningstar also recently updated their Top 5 plans and they mention that Utah (the one I use) remains the only top option that offers a custom glide path option where you can plan it out once and it will follow it for you. For the rest, you’d have to manually make the changes as most plan allow you to change the asset allocation at least once a year.

Filed Under: College & Education, Investing //

Savings I Bonds November 2025: 0.90% Fixed Rate, 3.13% Inflation Rate (4.03% Total for First 6 Months)

Posted on November 4, 2025 // 7 Comments

Update: Savings I Bonds bought from November 1, 2025 to April 30, 2026 will have a fixed rate of 0.90% and inflation rate of 3.13%, for a total composite rate of 4.03% for the first 6 months. Compare the total rate with the current short-term Treasury yields (1-year @ ~3.7%), and compare the fixed rate with the short-term TIPS real yields (5-year @ ~1.3%).

Every existing I Bond will earn this inflation rate of ~3.13% eventually for 6 months; you will need to add your own fixed rate that was set based the initial purchase month. See you again in mid-April for the next early prediction for May 2026.

Original post from 4/11/25:

Savings I Bonds are a unique, low-risk investment backed by the US Treasury that pay out a variable interest rate linked to inflation. With a holding period from 12 months to 30 years, you could own them as an alternative to bank certificates of deposit (they are liquid after 12 months) or bonds in your portfolio.

New inflation numbers were announced (late due to the government shutdown) at BLS.gov, which allows us to make an early prediction of the November 2025 savings bond rates just before the official announcement on the 1st. This also allows the opportunity to know exactly what an October 2025 savings bond purchase will yield over the next 12 months, instead of just 6 months. You can then compare this against a November 2025 purchase.

New inflation rate prediction. May 2025 CPI-U was 319.799. September 2025 CPI-U was 324.800, for a semi-annual inflation rate of 1.56%. Using the official composite rate formula:

Composite rate formula: [Fixed rate + (2 x semiannual inflation rate) + (fixed rate x semiannual inflation rate)]

This results in the variable component of interest rate for the next 6 month cycle being ~3.12 to 3.13%, depending on the fixed rate.

Tips on purchase and redemption. You can’t redeem until after 12 months of ownership, and any redemptions within 5 years incur an interest penalty of the last 3 months of interest. A simple “trick” with I-Bonds is that if you buy at the end of the month, you’ll still get all the interest for the entire month – same as if you bought it in the beginning of the month. It’s best to give yourself a few business days of buffer time. If you miss the cutoff, your effective purchase date will be bumped into the next month. (You should always sell at the very beginning of the month.)

Buying in October 2025. If you buy before the end of October, the fixed rate portion of I-Bonds will be 1.10%. You will be guaranteed a total interest rate of 1.10 + 2.88 = 3.98% for the next 6 months. For the 6 months after that, the total rate will be 1.10 + 3.12 = 4.22%.

Buying in November 2025. If you buy in November 2025, you will get ~3.12% plus a newly-set fixed rate for the first 6 months. The new fixed rate is officially unknown, but is loosely linked to the real yield of short-term TIPS with some reductions. In the previous 10 days, 5-year TIPS real rates have ranged from 1.19% to 1.30%. If I had to guess, I’d put a new fixed rate somewhere between 0.8 to 1.0%, for a total rate of about 4%. Every six months after your purchase, your rate will adjust to your fixed rate (set at purchase) plus a variable rate based on inflation.

If you have an existing I-Bond, the rates reset every 6 months depending on your specific purchase month. Everyone will eventually get this variable rate. Your bond rate = your specific fixed rate (based on purchase month, look it up here) + variable rate (total bond rate has a minimum floor of 0%).

Buy now or wait? Between those two options, if you are a long-term holder, you might grab the 1.1% fixed rate “bird in the hand” in October as the fixed rate will likely be lower in November. If you’re in it for the short-term, you may want to buy in November in case inflation shoots up.

Unique features and benefits! There are definitely reasons to own Series I Savings Bonds, including inflation protection, tax deferral, exemption from state income taxes, and potential tax benefits if used toward qualified educational expenses.

Unique drawbacks! You can only buy new savings bonds through TreasuryDirect.gov, which is limited in its customer service resources and features. There is also no option for paper tax forms nor statements (or even online monthly statements), so your heirs may never know they exist! If they do find it, it may take them several months and a lot of effort to close out all the estate paperwork. If you forget your password, it may take weeks or longer to unlock your account.

If you become a victim to theft or fraudulent activity, they will not replace any lost or stolen savings bonds. They explicitly accept no liability:

§ 363.17 Who is liable if someone else accesses my TreasuryDirect ® account using my password?

You are solely responsible for the confidentiality and use of your account number, password, and any other form(s) of authentication we may require. We will treat any transactions conducted using your password as having been authorized by you. We are not liable for any loss, liability, cost, or expense that you may incur as a result of transactions made using your password.

The juice may not be worth the squeeze when you can own individual Treasury bonds or TIPS within any full-service brokerage account.

I also used to believe that the government would not tamper or attempt to politically influence these BLS CPI statistics that are at the core of many important functions, including Social Security inflation adjustments, TIPS, and these I Savings Bonds. Now I’m not so sure.

Personally, I sold all my savings bonds in 2024 and do not plan to buy any more. I’m older now and I feel the small potential benefit just doesn’t outweigh the small possibility that I could lose the entire amount due to estate-handling mistakes or online hack. I’d rather own TIPS and US Treasuries directly in a full-service brokerage account.

Annual purchase limits. The annual purchase limit is now $10,000 in online I-bonds per Social Security Number. For a couple, that’s $20,000 per year. As of 2025, you can only buy online at TreasuryDirect.gov, after making sure you’re okay with their poor service. (No more tax refund savings bonds.) Technically, the purchase limits are per Social Security Number or Employer Identification Number. For those looking for another way to expand their purchasing power, that means you can also buy for a child, grandchild, LLC, or a trust.

Bottom line. Savings I bonds are a unique, low-risk investment that are linked to inflation and only available to individual investors. You can now only purchase them online at TreasuryDirect.gov. They have both unique benefit and drawbacks. For more background, see the rest of my posts on savings bonds.

[Image: 1942 US Savings Bond poster – source]

Filed Under: Banking, Investing, Retirement, Savings Bonds //
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